WEBVTT NOTE duration:"01:27:18" NOTE recognizability:0.813 NOTE language:en-us NOTE Confidence: 0.8021877 00:00:05.200 --> 00:00:07.930 OK so again thank you for coming NOTE Confidence: 0.8021877 00:00:07.930 --> 00:00:10.120 for the February adventure in NOTE Confidence: 0.8021877 00:00:10.120 --> 00:00:12.465 statistics meeting and down the NOTE Confidence: 0.8021877 00:00:12.465 --> 00:00:15.290 time is yours, so Thanks Jack. NOTE Confidence: 0.8021877 00:00:15.290 --> 00:00:18.150 And thanks to you Shannon Daniel NOTE Confidence: 0.8021877 00:00:18.150 --> 00:00:20.325 on for arranging this and NOTE Confidence: 0.8021877 00:00:20.325 --> 00:00:22.350 introducing this and recording this NOTE Confidence: 0.8021877 00:00:22.350 --> 00:00:24.409 and making sure that it works. NOTE Confidence: 0.778212723333333 00:00:26.530 --> 00:00:29.446 As Jack indicated, we're in series. NOTE Confidence: 0.778212723333333 00:00:29.450 --> 00:00:33.174 The first three parts were clinical trials. NOTE Confidence: 0.778212723333333 00:00:33.180 --> 00:00:36.684 And then miscellaneous innocence. NOTE Confidence: 0.778212723333333 00:00:36.684 --> 00:00:41.600 But some issues that are. NOTE Confidence: 0.778212723333333 00:00:41.600 --> 00:00:45.360 Important to statistics and statisticians, NOTE Confidence: 0.778212723333333 00:00:45.360 --> 00:00:48.419 today's subject is the science of doping, NOTE Confidence: 0.778212723333333 00:00:48.420 --> 00:00:49.812 doping or lack thereof, NOTE Confidence: 0.778212723333333 00:00:49.812 --> 00:00:52.689 and I'll say where that title comes from. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:00:55.490 --> 00:00:59.970 And also BRCA pro risk model for carrying NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:00:59.970 --> 00:01:04.147 a deleterious mutations of BRCA one or two. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:04.150 --> 00:01:07.510 And I'll spend most of the time NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:07.510 --> 00:01:10.898 actually on the science of doping, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:10.900 --> 00:01:17.060 so it'll maybe like 4020 or 4515 even I will. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:17.060 --> 00:01:20.180 Give at least 15 minutes to NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:20.303 --> 00:01:23.887 the BRCA Pro and more if I can. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:23.890 --> 00:01:27.461 The. There are commonalities NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:27.461 --> 00:01:29.946 to what I'm talking about, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:29.950 --> 00:01:33.314 even in the other adventures. For example, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:33.314 --> 00:01:36.130 the size of doping is very closely related, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:36.130 --> 00:01:38.686 some of the same issues that are present in NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:38.686 --> 00:01:41.459 DNA profiling that I talked about last time. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:41.460 --> 00:01:44.687 There's big data in many of these, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:44.690 --> 00:01:48.680 although not all in the modeling issue. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:48.680 --> 00:01:51.890 PRCA Pro and assistant model NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:51.890 --> 00:01:56.150 multiplicities are really everywhere. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:56.150 --> 00:01:59.300 And there there there hiding, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:01:59.300 --> 00:02:02.848 sometimes not too secretly. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:02.850 --> 00:02:05.310 And sometimes very silently, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:05.310 --> 00:02:09.000 in almost everything we do statisticians. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:12.300 Another commonality in some of these, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:12.300 --> 00:02:15.690 notably the science of doping and. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:15.690 --> 00:02:20.632 DNA profiling is the way in which NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:20.632 --> 00:02:25.609 statisticians are treated as though we're, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:25.610 --> 00:02:27.976 you know, we can do T tests NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:27.976 --> 00:02:30.769 and we can calculate P values. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:30.770 --> 00:02:34.172 But in terms of thinking in terms NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:34.172 --> 00:02:37.140 of the the substance matter, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:37.140 --> 00:02:40.860 we don't have much to add. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:40.860 --> 00:02:42.812 And my notion is, NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:42.812 --> 00:02:47.100 and I'm trying to convey that to everyone. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:47.100 --> 00:02:51.020 It's our role is much bigger than that NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:51.020 --> 00:02:55.050 and we in a sense are the science. NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:55.050 --> 00:02:58.715 Behind where the empirical science NOTE Confidence: 0.734142714375 00:02:58.715 --> 00:03:01.458 behind many of these issues. NOTE Confidence: 0.89637496882353 00:03:08.500 --> 00:03:10.768 So you just to remind you you NOTE Confidence: 0.89637496882353 00:03:10.768 --> 00:03:13.576 can go to the website indicated NOTE Confidence: 0.89637496882353 00:03:13.576 --> 00:03:15.904 here the adventures website NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:18.520 --> 00:03:20.761 openworks.mdanderson.org back slash NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:20.761 --> 00:03:23.749 or slash Biostatistics underlying NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:23.749 --> 00:03:26.355 adventures and this is open to the public. NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:26.360 --> 00:03:29.170 So if you have friends NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:29.170 --> 00:03:31.465 or colleagues or bosses. NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:31.465 --> 00:03:35.095 Our clinicians with whom you work NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:35.095 --> 00:03:39.050 that you want to refer this to, that's that. NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:39.050 --> 00:03:44.306 That's great and everyone is welcome. NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:44.310 --> 00:03:47.446 Here is where the title came from. NOTE Confidence: 0.8835369975 00:03:47.450 --> 00:03:50.278 It's a piece I wrote for nature. NOTE Confidence: 0.867300792222222 00:03:52.780 --> 00:03:55.054 Back in 2008 it everything I NOTE Confidence: 0.867300792222222 00:03:55.054 --> 00:03:57.546 say here is still germane to NOTE Confidence: 0.867300792222222 00:03:57.546 --> 00:04:00.204 what's going on today in doping. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:02.730 --> 00:04:05.826 The OR lack thereof is interesting NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:05.826 --> 00:04:08.750 because this is not the way. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:08.750 --> 00:04:12.116 The article appeared in the journal. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:12.120 --> 00:04:14.658 This is the way it appeared. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:14.660 --> 00:04:17.080 On the very last day, NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:17.080 --> 00:04:18.619 nature, of course, NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:18.619 --> 00:04:22.420 is worried about lawsuits. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:22.420 --> 00:04:25.876 And WADA I'll tell you what NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:25.876 --> 00:04:30.750 water is the world amateur. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:30.750 --> 00:04:35.320 The World Athletic Doping Association, NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:35.320 --> 00:04:41.210 which came into being in 1999. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:41.210 --> 00:04:44.270 It was threatening to sue. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:44.270 --> 00:04:48.923 Nature, if they printed it the way it was, NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:48.930 --> 00:04:52.094 so they kept all of these stuff. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:52.100 --> 00:04:53.230 That's in the taxi didn't NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:53.230 --> 00:04:54.360 change the text at all, NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:54.360 --> 00:04:57.216 but they dropped those three words, NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:57.220 --> 00:04:58.567 or lack thereof. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:04:58.567 --> 00:05:01.261 But it's still true that the NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:01.261 --> 00:05:03.756 processes used to charge athletes NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:03.756 --> 00:05:06.696 with cheating are often bought based NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:06.780 --> 00:05:09.636 on flawed science and flawed logic. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:09.640 --> 00:05:13.480 So just to give you a kind of inkling into NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:13.575 --> 00:05:17.503 the kinds of things that happen and doping. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:17.510 --> 00:05:21.998 And this is a part of a figure. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:22.000 --> 00:05:28.020 That I published in in this article. NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:28.020 --> 00:05:32.544 And WADA actually told nature NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:32.544 --> 00:05:35.856 that they were going to sue NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:35.860 --> 00:05:37.464 for using private information, NOTE Confidence: 0.891291573333333 00:05:37.464 --> 00:05:40.490 that this was supposed to be private. NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:05:42.500 --> 00:05:46.396 Nature was able to explain to them and NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:05:46.396 --> 00:05:50.824 show them that at one time the Landis team. NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:05:50.830 --> 00:05:54.290 Floyd Landis, who had apparently NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:05:54.290 --> 00:05:58.467 won the Tour de France in 2006, NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:05:58.467 --> 00:06:00.826 was charged with doping and now if NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:00.826 --> 00:06:03.587 you go to that website you'll see NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:03.587 --> 00:06:06.030 that he's no longer indicated there NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:06.030 --> 00:06:10.965 as the winner because of the doping. NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:10.970 --> 00:06:16.906 And they they argued that this is private NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:16.906 --> 00:06:19.166 information, shouldn't be out there, NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:19.166 --> 00:06:22.344 but since it had appeared on the website NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:22.344 --> 00:06:24.810 for public where I downloaded it, NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:24.810 --> 00:06:26.073 then that's OK. NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:26.073 --> 00:06:29.768 I should say that I I did not NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:29.768 --> 00:06:32.316 participate in Landis team. NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:32.320 --> 00:06:34.948 I followed it. NOTE Confidence: 0.912675927647059 00:06:34.950 --> 00:06:39.158 I discussed at one point with his lawyer. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:41.220 --> 00:06:44.082 But that was at about the NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:44.082 --> 00:06:45.990 time that the landess. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:45.990 --> 00:06:49.140 Landis is manager at what NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:49.140 --> 00:06:51.660 was threatening Greg LeMond, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:51.660 --> 00:06:54.480 who was a previous. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:54.480 --> 00:06:56.979 Tour to France winner three time winner, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:56.980 --> 00:06:58.702 who was never involved in any of NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:58.702 --> 00:06:59.440 the doping issue. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:06:59.440 --> 00:07:02.040 Lance Armstrong, of course, was. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:02.040 --> 00:07:07.088 But Greg LeMond was going to testify against NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:07.088 --> 00:07:14.190 Landis and Landis is manager threatened. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:14.190 --> 00:07:17.170 Secretly, we pretended he he NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:17.170 --> 00:07:19.554 was Landis his uncle. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:19.560 --> 00:07:23.994 Threatened him with blackmail and the NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:23.994 --> 00:07:27.650 blackmail thing eventually came out and NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:27.650 --> 00:07:30.080 so I wanted nothing to do with this group, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:30.080 --> 00:07:34.640 but I certainly followed what was going on. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:34.640 --> 00:07:35.618 So you see, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:35.618 --> 00:07:37.574 Landis is these are this was NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:37.574 --> 00:07:39.727 he was charged with using. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:39.730 --> 00:07:40.818 He was charged with. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:40.818 --> 00:07:41.634 This is important. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:41.640 --> 00:07:45.140 He was charged with having NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:45.140 --> 00:07:46.540 elevated testosterone. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:46.540 --> 00:07:49.809 Knocked that he was charged with using NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:49.809 --> 00:07:52.520 testosterone or charged with using DH, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:52.520 --> 00:07:56.216 EA or something that would have NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:56.216 --> 00:07:58.680 metabolites or substances that NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:07:58.680 --> 00:08:02.136 would turn into or raise the NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:02.140 --> 00:08:03.740 testosterone it was charged with. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:03.740 --> 00:08:09.086 Using with having an elevated testosterone. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:09.090 --> 00:08:13.090 And these are two metabolites. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:13.090 --> 00:08:16.838 That actually 3 metabolites, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:16.838 --> 00:08:20.938 2 pairs of metabolites and you see NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:20.938 --> 00:08:23.219 that land is falls right in the NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:23.219 --> 00:08:25.207 middle of the red and the green. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:25.210 --> 00:08:32.060 Here the green are the supposed normals. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:32.060 --> 00:08:35.190 The red are the supposed NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:35.190 --> 00:08:37.192 dopers and this is critical. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:37.192 --> 00:08:40.020 They have no idea who doped or didn't, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:40.020 --> 00:08:41.080 but they drew a line. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:41.080 --> 00:08:43.888 Actually they drew a line here. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:43.890 --> 00:08:45.770 And said everything to the NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:45.770 --> 00:08:48.370 left of that line is a doper. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:48.370 --> 00:08:50.128 And you see Landis is to NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:50.128 --> 00:08:51.730 the left of that line. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:51.730 --> 00:08:55.140 And so this point here is that in this point NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:55.227 --> 00:08:58.485 here is actually on this side of the line. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:08:58.490 --> 00:09:01.378 So these are dopers. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:01.380 --> 00:09:01.844 And. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:01.844 --> 00:09:04.628 In terms of the science in NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:04.628 --> 00:09:07.042 terms of what WADA knows, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:07.042 --> 00:09:09.597 they've never run a study. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:09.600 --> 00:09:13.998 It's all collecting information on athletes, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:14.000 --> 00:09:17.300 in competition or out of competition, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:17.300 --> 00:09:20.075 but athletes anyway who are NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:20.075 --> 00:09:22.850 competing on the world stage. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:22.850 --> 00:09:26.426 And the so this gets this is Jermaine NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:26.426 --> 00:09:29.408 for the false positive rate. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:29.410 --> 00:09:31.790 The false negative rate, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:31.790 --> 00:09:34.170 something that's of course NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:34.170 --> 00:09:35.360 critically important. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:35.360 --> 00:09:37.256 So I'll tell you about I'm going to NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:37.256 --> 00:09:39.246 tell you about some things you know, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:39.250 --> 00:09:42.218 just to indicate what I've told others. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:42.220 --> 00:09:44.080 What I've told the regulators what. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:44.080 --> 00:09:48.400 I've told the Court of Arbitration in Sport NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:48.400 --> 00:09:51.612 what I've told the US Olympic Committee, etc. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:51.612 --> 00:09:54.440 And one of them is Bayes rule, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:54.440 --> 00:09:56.610 of course. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:56.610 --> 00:09:59.620 And I'll discuss lab errors NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:09:59.620 --> 00:10:02.630 and other kinds of errors. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:02.630 --> 00:10:05.556 I'll say what I think is necessary NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:05.556 --> 00:10:08.418 to make this a proper science. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:08.420 --> 00:10:11.372 And I'll discuss publishing NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:11.372 --> 00:10:13.586 versus closed science. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:13.590 --> 00:10:14.544 And multiplicities, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:14.544 --> 00:10:17.883 and something that is kind of recent. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:17.890 --> 00:10:19.958 It's in the last. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:19.958 --> 00:10:24.008 12 or so years that the the labs NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:24.008 --> 00:10:26.852 that wanna wanna labs have been NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:26.852 --> 00:10:30.420 looking at the course of a athlete NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:30.420 --> 00:10:33.630 overtime which they actually say and NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:33.630 --> 00:10:36.531 some of their articles is related to NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:36.531 --> 00:10:38.433 precision medicine and what we're doing. NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:38.440 --> 00:10:39.628 And you know, NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:39.628 --> 00:10:42.154 looking at patients and all NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:42.154 --> 00:10:45.044 aspect of the patients overtime NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:45.044 --> 00:10:47.656 something which if you were here NOTE Confidence: 0.820824656 00:10:47.656 --> 00:10:49.840 for the first three of these NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:10:49.922 --> 00:10:53.608 webinars. You'll see is is very important NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:10:53.608 --> 00:10:57.289 and it's something that I've been pushing. NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:10:57.290 --> 00:11:00.413 So I mentioned these six cases along the way. NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:00.420 --> 00:11:02.620 The stars indicate things that NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:02.620 --> 00:11:04.820 I've been involved with in NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:04.906 --> 00:11:09.880 testifying to somebody or other. NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:09.880 --> 00:11:15.725 And this represents three of the dozen or NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:15.725 --> 00:11:18.699 so cases that I've been involved with. NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:18.700 --> 00:11:21.248 But just to mention them, and some of them, NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:21.248 --> 00:11:24.143 I can give you the data, others I cannot. NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:24.143 --> 00:11:27.650 The the wangel oh the the the NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:27.759 --> 00:11:30.699 Daniel Wanjiru for example, NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:30.700 --> 00:11:33.202 is an ongoing case and I can just mention NOTE Confidence: 0.851284113636364 00:11:33.202 --> 00:11:35.490 that and mention something about the. NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:11:38.140 --> 00:11:41.500 ABBABP the the athlete's biological NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:11:41.500 --> 00:11:43.480 passport in the context of this, NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:11:43.480 --> 00:11:45.300 but it's not his data, NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:11:45.300 --> 00:11:50.430 it's not what he's been assessed to have. NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:11:50.430 --> 00:11:52.509 Some of these other names you'll recognize. NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:11:52.510 --> 00:11:56.626 Camilla Valley Valley Eva is the NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:11:56.626 --> 00:12:01.359 15 year old Russian figure skater. NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:12:01.360 --> 00:12:03.148 Shelby Holy hand, well, NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:12:03.148 --> 00:12:04.936 I'll talk about her. NOTE Confidence: 0.5006920901 00:12:04.940 --> 00:12:08.830 She's at US. Distance runner NOTE Confidence: 0.78067323 00:12:10.940 --> 00:12:15.224 Mary Decker Slaney is coming up next. NOTE Confidence: 0.78067323 00:12:15.230 --> 00:12:19.386 She was a. Olympic medalist NOTE Confidence: 0.78067323 00:12:19.386 --> 00:12:24.340 and then in the 1996 Olympics? NOTE Confidence: 0.934974908 00:12:26.390 --> 00:12:29.876 She was charged with using testosterone NOTE Confidence: 0.934974908 00:12:29.876 --> 00:12:32.200 or having elevated testosterone. NOTE Confidence: 0.934974908 00:12:32.200 --> 00:12:36.142 And I I wrote an article NOTE Confidence: 0.934974908 00:12:36.142 --> 00:12:39.600 about my experiences in this. NOTE Confidence: 0.934974908 00:12:39.600 --> 00:12:41.211 What case regarding? NOTE Confidence: 0.934974908 00:12:41.211 --> 00:12:43.359 The science of doping. NOTE Confidence: 0.934974908 00:12:43.360 --> 00:12:46.400 I testified. For. NOTE Confidence: 0.5660335 00:12:48.660 --> 00:12:49.430 Slany NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:12:51.480 --> 00:12:54.900 she had an elevated testosterone level. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:12:54.900 --> 00:12:58.686 The standard thing is to compare NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:12:58.686 --> 00:13:00.579 testosterone with epitestosterone. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:00.580 --> 00:13:02.380 And the upper level is 6. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:02.380 --> 00:13:03.538 If you were six or above, NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:03.540 --> 00:13:05.160 you were adult bro. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:05.160 --> 00:13:06.375 That was it. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:06.380 --> 00:13:09.236 And US Olympic Committee said she's guilty. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:09.240 --> 00:13:10.440 Why is she guilty? NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:10.440 --> 00:13:12.410 'cause she has a testosterone over 6? NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:12.410 --> 00:13:14.810 Where does the six come from? NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:14.810 --> 00:13:16.220 Nobody really knows. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:16.220 --> 00:13:17.630 It's arbitrary now. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:17.630 --> 00:13:21.290 Today it's actually 4. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:21.290 --> 00:13:23.350 And it's based on something, NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:23.350 --> 00:13:24.952 some data somewhere, NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:24.952 --> 00:13:29.130 and I'll get into that as we go. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:29.130 --> 00:13:31.692 But what was presented in her NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:31.692 --> 00:13:33.949 case was essentially no credible NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:33.949 --> 00:13:35.817 evidence about where this NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:35.817 --> 00:13:38.640 upper limit of six came from. NOTE Confidence: 0.941997866666667 00:13:38.640 --> 00:13:41.340 And when I testified in September. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:13:43.890 --> 00:13:49.702 Of 1997 to 3 member hearing board NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:13:49.702 --> 00:13:53.908 of the US Athletic Track and Field. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:13:53.910 --> 00:13:57.771 She was exonerated. When it went, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:13:57.771 --> 00:13:59.870 when the case went to the international body. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:13:59.870 --> 00:14:03.125 At that time, the International NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:03.125 --> 00:14:05.729 Association of Athletics Federations. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:05.730 --> 00:14:07.529 This was going to be in Monaco NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:07.529 --> 00:14:09.098 and I couldn't go to Monaco. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:09.100 --> 00:14:11.186 I don't think it would have made NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:11.186 --> 00:14:12.679 any difference if I'd gone. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:12.680 --> 00:14:16.400 They didn't look at anything about the data, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:16.400 --> 00:14:19.300 it was simply it was bigger than six. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:19.300 --> 00:14:21.844 The TE was bigger than six NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:21.844 --> 00:14:24.250 and therefore she was guilty. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:24.250 --> 00:14:28.590 And they said that the USATF's doping NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:28.590 --> 00:14:31.165 hearing board decision was erroneous. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:31.170 --> 00:14:32.709 Signing filed suit. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:32.709 --> 00:14:35.787 The court said it lacked jurisdiction. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:35.790 --> 00:14:38.023 These things can't be appealed to any NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:38.023 --> 00:14:41.820 of our standard courts, for example. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:41.820 --> 00:14:43.495 Although the court said kind NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:43.495 --> 00:14:45.620 of a slap in the face, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:45.620 --> 00:14:47.405 although the arbiters were not NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:47.405 --> 00:14:49.760 bound by rules of evidence that is, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:49.760 --> 00:14:51.728 they didn't look at the evidence. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:51.730 --> 00:14:53.886 The court said that the issue could NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:53.886 --> 00:14:58.780 not be re litigated, so Slaney lost. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:14:58.780 --> 00:15:02.038 What I presented was how to NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:02.038 --> 00:15:04.210 calculate the the probability. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:04.210 --> 00:15:06.170 Did an athlete is? NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:06.170 --> 00:15:09.234 Is has been doping how it's related NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:09.234 --> 00:15:11.810 to the probability of a positive test NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:11.885 --> 00:15:14.223 given that the athlete has been doping NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:14.223 --> 00:15:16.890 or has not been doping and what's NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:16.890 --> 00:15:18.990 required to make such calculations, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:18.990 --> 00:15:20.980 which is a huge issue. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:20.980 --> 00:15:22.888 And how to determine and justify NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:22.888 --> 00:15:24.820 that the test is positive? NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:24.820 --> 00:15:28.054 Another huge issue, of course Bayes rule. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:28.060 --> 00:15:30.650 I won't say anything about it because NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:30.650 --> 00:15:33.617 you all have seen it and and know it. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:33.620 --> 00:15:37.259 Additional considerations is. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:37.260 --> 00:15:40.228 In terms of the sensitivity and specificity, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:40.230 --> 00:15:44.241 what do you use for determining whether NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:44.241 --> 00:15:48.528 something is a is a false positive or NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:48.528 --> 00:15:54.760 something is a false negative and it's, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:54.760 --> 00:15:56.218 as I indicated, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:15:56.218 --> 00:16:00.030 a bit earlier for in the context of. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:00.030 --> 00:16:02.210 Both. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:02.210 --> 00:16:08.730 Landis and Slaney They don't do this right. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:08.730 --> 00:16:11.960 They don't come close to doing this, right? NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:11.960 --> 00:16:13.568 There are procedural problems. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:13.568 --> 00:16:15.578 We talked about contaminations earlier. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:15.580 --> 00:16:21.380 You remember in the DNA profiling still here. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:21.380 --> 00:16:23.760 There is data entry errors, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:23.760 --> 00:16:25.110 math errors, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:25.110 --> 00:16:28.485 there's the way they estimate NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:28.485 --> 00:16:32.162 parameters in normal distributions or NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:32.162 --> 00:16:35.258 Weibull distributions or whatever. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:35.260 --> 00:16:37.630 And what data goes into that? NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:37.630 --> 00:16:38.128 Importantly, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:38.128 --> 00:16:41.116 results of tests that are known NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:41.116 --> 00:16:43.400 negative and known positive. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:43.400 --> 00:16:46.400 There are no such tests. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:46.400 --> 00:16:49.360 There are no such studies. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:49.360 --> 00:16:51.880 The serial nature of the tests to an athlete, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:51.880 --> 00:16:53.648 and, as I mentioned, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:53.648 --> 00:16:55.858 the athletes have biological passport. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:55.860 --> 00:16:59.479 Best passport and test of other athletes. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:16:59.480 --> 00:17:02.119 How do they come into the picture? NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:02.120 --> 00:17:05.102 And what about the age of the NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:05.102 --> 00:17:07.220 athlete that was germane? NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:07.220 --> 00:17:09.430 In the case of Slaney, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:09.430 --> 00:17:11.518 who was 38 years old at the time, NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:11.520 --> 00:17:17.668 test was taken and the one of the NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:17.668 --> 00:17:20.528 persons who testified except I NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:20.528 --> 00:17:23.980 was one of two so called experts. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:23.980 --> 00:17:27.175 The other expert was in endocrinologist, who. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:27.175 --> 00:17:30.650 Testified about the difference in NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:30.650 --> 00:17:34.500 age with women in terms of their NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:34.500 --> 00:17:37.698 hormone statuses and of course NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:37.698 --> 00:17:40.366 multiplicities which are everywhere. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:40.370 --> 00:17:43.877 There's a major distinction in all of NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:43.877 --> 00:17:49.050 these cases. Whether the substance. NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:49.050 --> 00:17:52.025 That you're measuring is naturally NOTE Confidence: 0.2829535 00:17:52.025 --> 00:17:53.810 occurring or not. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:17:53.810 --> 00:17:57.070 Testosterone occurs in all humans, NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:17:57.070 --> 00:17:59.200 male and female, more and male. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:17:59.200 --> 00:18:03.456 But in all humans, and so the the NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:03.460 --> 00:18:05.609 the question is one of is it? NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:05.610 --> 00:18:08.470 Is it high, is it? NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:08.470 --> 00:18:11.434 Elevated that could only NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:11.434 --> 00:18:14.398 be done by something. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:14.400 --> 00:18:16.895 By another substance and then NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:16.895 --> 00:18:19.880 there are cases as in the. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:19.880 --> 00:18:25.436 15 year old Russian figure skater NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:25.436 --> 00:18:29.870 of trauma tested tacitean which NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:29.870 --> 00:18:34.570 is not in humans generally. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:34.570 --> 00:18:40.227 Unless they take this this drug or NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:40.227 --> 00:18:42.969 something like this drug that will NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:42.970 --> 00:18:46.426 metabolize into this drug or whatever. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:46.430 --> 00:18:48.450 And then there's there's NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:48.450 --> 00:18:49.965 something in between, NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:49.970 --> 00:18:52.530 so I guess there's a lot in between. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:52.530 --> 00:18:57.420 The one of them is nandrolone. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:57.420 --> 00:18:58.809 And pork burritos. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:18:58.809 --> 00:19:02.050 What in the world does pork burrito NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:19:02.135 --> 00:19:04.445 have to do with this issue? NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:19:04.450 --> 00:19:08.230 So Shelby houlihan. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:19:08.230 --> 00:19:12.558 Was tested and tested positive NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:19:12.558 --> 00:19:14.364 for natural own. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:19:14.370 --> 00:19:17.289 This is an antibiotics, but anabolic steroid. NOTE Confidence: 0.91140267 00:19:17.290 --> 00:19:20.176 It happens to occur in pigs. NOTE Confidence: 0.765759314285714 00:19:22.290 --> 00:19:25.860 And in some pigs more than others, NOTE Confidence: 0.765759314285714 00:19:25.860 --> 00:19:29.148 in particular UN castrated. NOTE Confidence: 0.765759314285714 00:19:29.150 --> 00:19:34.359 Boars. And she claimed. NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:19:36.930 --> 00:19:41.454 That she had ingested this anabolic NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:19:41.454 --> 00:19:44.286 steroid inadvertently from eating NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:19:44.286 --> 00:19:49.130 a burrito 10 hours before the test? NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:19:49.130 --> 00:19:53.176 And Houlihan's team had a, uh, NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:19:53.176 --> 00:19:54.656 an expedited hearing at the NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:19:54.656 --> 00:19:56.220 Court of Arbitration in Sport, NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:19:56.220 --> 00:19:58.724 which I'll say more about and was on. NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:19:58.730 --> 00:20:01.649 In the hope of proving her innocence NOTE Confidence: 0.840820612857143 00:20:01.649 --> 00:20:04.560 before the US trials in 2020. NOTE Confidence: 0.651777878333333 00:20:06.710 --> 00:20:09.416 But went public after hearing Cassie NOTE Confidence: 0.651777878333333 00:20:09.420 --> 00:20:11.370 Cassie's verdict and gone against them. NOTE Confidence: 0.953705451428571 00:20:13.550 --> 00:20:15.286 She said I did everything I did. NOTE Confidence: 0.953705451428571 00:20:15.290 --> 00:20:16.590 It could prove my innocence. NOTE Confidence: 0.953705451428571 00:20:16.590 --> 00:20:18.250 I passed her polygraph NOTE Confidence: 0.953705451428571 00:20:18.250 --> 00:20:20.325 test and my hair samples. NOTE Confidence: 0.953705451428571 00:20:20.330 --> 00:20:26.050 There were no. Lingering. Steroids NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:28.100 --> 00:20:31.649 and my question is why didn't cheat NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:31.649 --> 00:20:34.557 another pork burrito and do another NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:34.557 --> 00:20:38.254 test or sample the pork burritos to NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:38.254 --> 00:20:43.400 show that in fact this was possible. NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:43.400 --> 00:20:45.332 What did Cass have to say NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:45.332 --> 00:20:46.620 about pork pork burritos? NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:46.620 --> 00:20:51.489 They Pooh poohed it and it kind of summary. NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:51.490 --> 00:20:54.455 Statement simply the X explanation NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:54.455 --> 00:20:57.420 presupposes a cascade of factual NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:57.517 --> 00:20:59.909 scientific improbabilities, NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:20:59.910 --> 00:21:01.455 which means that its composite NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:21:01.455 --> 00:21:03.320 probability is very close to zero. NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:21:03.320 --> 00:21:04.548 They don't calculate it. NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:21:04.548 --> 00:21:06.390 They could make an attempt to NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:21:06.451 --> 00:21:08.558 calculate it and I'll show you an NOTE Confidence: 0.826235882142857 00:21:08.558 --> 00:21:10.549 attempt to actually in the next slide. NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:13.190 --> 00:21:15.962 One issue that's related to this NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:15.962 --> 00:21:18.778 in between thing and whether it's NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:18.778 --> 00:21:22.042 natural at all even in pigs is it NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:22.042 --> 00:21:24.289 was the the lab claimed that this NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:24.289 --> 00:21:26.852 natural loan that was in her samples NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:26.852 --> 00:21:29.190 was consistent with that found in NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:29.190 --> 00:21:31.650 products commonly sold on the Internet. NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:31.650 --> 00:21:34.760 There are different kinds of. NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:34.760 --> 00:21:37.100 Versions of the natural own, NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:37.100 --> 00:21:39.886 depending on what the the background is NOTE Confidence: 0.889043322222222 00:21:39.886 --> 00:21:42.410 depending on particular molecular structure. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:21:45.190 --> 00:21:48.515 But my comment again at the bottom, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:21:48.520 --> 00:21:50.116 a more compelling alternative. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:21:50.116 --> 00:21:53.102 Maybe that natural owner is known to NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:21:53.102 --> 00:21:55.198 contaminate some nutrition supplements. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:21:55.200 --> 00:21:57.356 In fact there were two tennis NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:21:57.356 --> 00:21:59.980 players who were exonerated, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:21:59.980 --> 00:22:02.815 though they had natural own in their NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:02.815 --> 00:22:06.166 system because they were able to show NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:06.166 --> 00:22:08.945 that some of the nutrition supplements NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:08.945 --> 00:22:13.350 that they took and that other people take. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:13.350 --> 00:22:16.478 That you buy on the Internet are NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:16.478 --> 00:22:22.190 in fact contaminated. With natural. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:22.190 --> 00:22:27.686 And so they were exonerated on that basis. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:27.690 --> 00:22:33.933 On I was entertained, amused, interested. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:33.933 --> 00:22:37.538 And a very famous statistician NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:37.538 --> 00:22:41.127 who looked at the Hoolihan case. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:41.130 --> 00:22:43.746 I don't think he or she I'm not NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:43.746 --> 00:22:46.126 going to tell you who it was. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:46.130 --> 00:22:48.797 Because I don't have his or her NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:48.797 --> 00:22:50.608 permission to show you this, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:50.608 --> 00:22:53.114 this was in a kind of a, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:53.120 --> 00:22:55.320 not a blog exactly, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:55.320 --> 00:22:58.815 but in a set of people who are NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:22:58.815 --> 00:23:00.950 interested in the subject and and NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:00.950 --> 00:23:02.690 pass back and forth information, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:02.690 --> 00:23:05.914 including some chemists and NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:05.914 --> 00:23:08.151 and regulators there. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:08.151 --> 00:23:11.256 People involved in the in NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:11.256 --> 00:23:13.119 the regulatory world. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:13.120 --> 00:23:17.512 And this person start out by saying you know? NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:17.520 --> 00:23:18.082 OK, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:18.082 --> 00:23:20.892 so it's unlikely these cascade NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:20.892 --> 00:23:27.108 of events maybe 2 and 10,000. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:27.110 --> 00:23:30.358 Using Bayes rule and think he complained NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:30.358 --> 00:23:33.536 that what the what the what the. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:33.540 --> 00:23:36.256 Cass was doing what the everybody was NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:36.256 --> 00:23:38.801 doing was mixing up the probability of NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:38.801 --> 00:23:41.510 a given B with probability be given NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:41.584 --> 00:23:43.948 a what we've talked about really. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:43.950 --> 00:23:45.370 It's something like that. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:45.370 --> 00:23:47.357 In the last webinar, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:47.357 --> 00:23:50.108 the prosecutor's fallacy. NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:50.110 --> 00:23:51.700 So he said the question is, NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:51.700 --> 00:23:53.224 what is the proportion of athletes NOTE Confidence: 0.921221275714286 00:23:53.224 --> 00:23:54.570 that are cheats and Myers? NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:23:56.800 --> 00:23:58.275 The other question is what NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:23:58.275 --> 00:23:59.455 is the probability Mrs. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:23:59.460 --> 00:24:02.436 Houlihan would have brought such excellent, NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:02.440 --> 00:24:04.404 compelling character witness evidence NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:04.404 --> 00:24:08.030 had she actually been a liar and she. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:08.030 --> 00:24:10.750 Maybe one and 100 cheap. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:10.750 --> 00:24:12.998 But maybe only one in 100 cheaters can NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:12.998 --> 00:24:15.350 bring such compelling character evidence. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:15.350 --> 00:24:17.335 So, given the character evidence NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:17.335 --> 00:24:19.929 he's using my prior, the chance she NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:19.929 --> 00:24:22.900 did lie and cheat as one in 10,000. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:22.900 --> 00:24:26.995 And then one in 10,000 versus 2 in 10,000. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:27.000 --> 00:24:28.744 The probability. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:28.744 --> 00:24:32.232 The posterior probability of NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:32.232 --> 00:24:34.238 guilt is one in three, NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:34.238 --> 00:24:36.410 and of innocence is 2 and three. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:36.410 --> 00:24:39.050 Now I don't agree with this. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:39.050 --> 00:24:40.946 I have different priors. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:40.946 --> 00:24:43.464 This person is perfectly appropriate NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:43.464 --> 00:24:48.530 that he or she has this prior. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:48.530 --> 00:24:50.833 And maybe if we were to talk NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:50.833 --> 00:24:53.320 that person and maybe we'd come NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:53.320 --> 00:24:55.945 up with something in between. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:55.950 --> 00:24:58.454 This is the kind of thing that the. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:24:58.460 --> 00:25:00.830 That the. NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:25:00.830 --> 00:25:04.610 Finders the ultimate finders are doing, NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:25:04.610 --> 00:25:06.620 it's just they're not doing NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:25:06.620 --> 00:25:07.826 it called quantitatively, NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:25:07.830 --> 00:25:09.310 and it's important to get NOTE Confidence: 0.813235994444445 00:25:09.310 --> 00:25:10.494 your assumptions out there. NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:12.590 --> 00:25:15.382 Just to show that this is the kind NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:15.382 --> 00:25:18.069 of thing I show people to tell them. NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:18.069 --> 00:25:20.050 You know it's not so obvious what NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:20.112 --> 00:25:21.860 the posterior probability is. NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:21.860 --> 00:25:23.624 So if you had a cancer NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:23.624 --> 00:25:24.800 screening test for example, NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:24.800 --> 00:25:29.592 it was 95% sensitive and 95% specific. NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:29.592 --> 00:25:33.680 By the way, there are no such things. NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:33.680 --> 00:25:35.720 There's nothing that is this sensitive, NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:35.720 --> 00:25:37.545 and this specific in terms NOTE Confidence: 0.922655978461538 00:25:37.545 --> 00:25:39.005 of screening for cancer. NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:25:41.160 --> 00:25:43.141 You what you're really interested is a NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:25:43.141 --> 00:25:45.339 positive so called positive predictive value. NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:25:45.340 --> 00:25:48.545 The posterior probability of having NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:25:48.545 --> 00:25:51.750 cancer given a positive test. NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:25:51.750 --> 00:25:54.090 And so it's easy calculation. NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:25:54.090 --> 00:25:57.918 You just take the positive positive. NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:25:57.920 --> 00:26:00.284 Having the disease not having the NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:00.284 --> 00:26:02.912 disease and calculate you don't NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:02.912 --> 00:26:06.260 condition on the positive divide by NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:06.364 --> 00:26:09.196 the sum of these and you get 2%. NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:09.196 --> 00:26:11.170 So even though this is highly NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:11.244 --> 00:26:13.949 sensitive and highly highly specific, NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:13.950 --> 00:26:18.388 if it's as in most screening circumstances, NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:18.390 --> 00:26:20.325 pretty unlikely that somebody who NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:20.325 --> 00:26:23.109 is who is screened is a positive. NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:23.110 --> 00:26:25.216 You get a very small posterior NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:25.216 --> 00:26:27.855 probability and I show them this to say NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:27.855 --> 00:26:29.997 how it's related to how the posterior NOTE Confidence: 0.793474658461538 00:26:29.997 --> 00:26:32.490 is related to the to the prior. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:26:38.040 --> 00:26:42.230 This is a very interesting. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:26:42.230 --> 00:26:45.184 A case on they have no empirical NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:26:45.184 --> 00:26:48.080 validation of their testing procedures. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:26:48.080 --> 00:26:49.620 They have great basic science, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:26:49.620 --> 00:26:52.470 biology, chemistry. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:26:52.470 --> 00:26:55.608 But the credible demonstration of how NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:26:55.608 --> 00:26:58.296 well their detection makes methods NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:26:58.296 --> 00:27:01.374 work in practice just doesn't exist. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:01.380 --> 00:27:04.494 What they should do is fix the upper limit. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:04.500 --> 00:27:09.004 Fix the whatever the decision is so that NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:09.004 --> 00:27:13.931 automaton can can assess the result NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:13.931 --> 00:27:19.566 and conclude positive or negative. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:19.570 --> 00:27:22.754 You have to use known samples that are NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:22.754 --> 00:27:25.510 positive known samples that are negative NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:25.510 --> 00:27:29.094 and do you need to publish the false NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:29.094 --> 00:27:31.592 positive and false negative results? NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:31.592 --> 00:27:35.330 If you compare this with medical diagnostics, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:35.330 --> 00:27:36.638 there's no comparison. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:36.638 --> 00:27:40.525 I mean the the the hoops that NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:40.525 --> 00:27:43.334 the device companies have to NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:43.334 --> 00:27:46.089 jump through are very important, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:46.090 --> 00:27:49.276 the the theory may be beautiful. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:49.280 --> 00:27:51.520 But what is the practice? NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:51.520 --> 00:27:52.764 And finally, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:52.764 --> 00:27:56.496 these experimental results must be published. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:27:56.500 --> 00:28:00.010 This is a paper that I wrote with Krista NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:00.010 --> 00:28:03.230 Fisher who is in Stony and statistician. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:03.230 --> 00:28:08.657 Who worked in the case of Andrew server PLU? NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:08.660 --> 00:28:12.948 And I wanna tell you how they calculated. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:12.950 --> 00:28:16.558 The false positive rate. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:16.560 --> 00:28:18.972 So they claimed that the false NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:18.972 --> 00:28:21.439 positive rate was one in 10,000. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:21.440 --> 00:28:23.650 How did they get that? NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:23.650 --> 00:28:27.381 They used a sample actually closer to NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:27.381 --> 00:28:31.045 100 athletes in training competition. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:31.045 --> 00:28:36.235 And they they plotted the HCA, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:36.240 --> 00:28:39.108 the human growth hormone is a NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:39.108 --> 00:28:41.540 human human growth hormone test. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:41.540 --> 00:28:44.654 They plotted the results and separated NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:44.654 --> 00:28:47.983 them into dopers and not just as NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:47.983 --> 00:28:50.692 I showed you in that example and NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:50.784 --> 00:28:56.660 testosterone metabolites for Floyd Landis. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:56.660 --> 00:28:58.400 They made a very strong assumption, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:28:58.400 --> 00:29:01.526 namely that the distribution was lognormal NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:01.530 --> 00:29:04.708 and they didn't justify that the strength, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:04.710 --> 00:29:07.290 but what they did? NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:07.290 --> 00:29:08.979 Is quite amazing. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:08.979 --> 00:29:12.357 So think back to that picture NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:12.357 --> 00:29:15.630 of the Floyd Landis thing. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:15.630 --> 00:29:17.958 They noticed that some were extreme, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:17.960 --> 00:29:19.360 so they said, well, NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:19.360 --> 00:29:20.410 those are dopers. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:20.410 --> 00:29:21.370 Let's get rid of them. NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:21.370 --> 00:29:23.802 Let's get rid of those X things because NOTE Confidence: 0.786056828 00:29:23.802 --> 00:29:26.320 we wanna know what is the normal. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:28.680 --> 00:29:31.650 Levels of human growth hormone NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:31.650 --> 00:29:33.438 and if you have these large NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:33.438 --> 00:29:35.090 levels well those aren't normal. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:35.090 --> 00:29:37.406 They must be dope so they. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:37.410 --> 00:29:38.890 They got rid of him. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:38.890 --> 00:29:41.590 They dropped all the large observations. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:41.590 --> 00:29:44.026 Assuming they were dopers and what they NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:44.026 --> 00:29:47.127 then did is fit a lognormal distribution, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:47.130 --> 00:29:51.234 which is, you know, has very small tail. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:51.240 --> 00:29:54.024 That what they had in fact done is NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:54.024 --> 00:29:56.509 cancel out everything that had turned NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:56.509 --> 00:29:59.610 out to be above the decision limit. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:29:59.610 --> 00:30:01.970 And so it casts hearings NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:01.970 --> 00:30:04.330 vary from one to another. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:04.330 --> 00:30:06.530 The people who are on the cast panel. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:06.530 --> 00:30:10.298 Three people are selected from like 180 NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:10.298 --> 00:30:14.554 arbitrators and they differ from one to NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:14.554 --> 00:30:19.214 another case at this particular hearing, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:19.214 --> 00:30:24.970 I was allowed to ask questions. Of the. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:24.970 --> 00:30:29.728 The the vertical the Virpil team, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:29.730 --> 00:30:33.310 but also of WADA. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:33.310 --> 00:30:36.398 So I I sat between the verbal team NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:36.398 --> 00:30:39.390 and the panel as sort of an expert. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:39.390 --> 00:30:41.642 That was, you know. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:41.642 --> 00:30:43.894 They're representing the team, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:43.900 --> 00:30:45.670 but I could ask questions, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:45.670 --> 00:30:49.528 and so when the statistician presented. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:49.530 --> 00:30:54.576 I asked him. So OK, so this is what you did. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:54.580 --> 00:30:55.992 You had a distribution. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:55.992 --> 00:30:58.858 You had a tail of the distribution NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:30:58.858 --> 00:31:00.859 that was substantial. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:00.860 --> 00:31:03.840 You cut off the tail. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:03.840 --> 00:31:07.064 And then said that the tail was small. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:07.070 --> 00:31:11.170 Is that correct? And he couldn't answer. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:11.170 --> 00:31:13.395 Of course it was correct. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:13.400 --> 00:31:16.140 There was somebody one person NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:16.140 --> 00:31:19.310 on that panel who got it. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:19.310 --> 00:31:21.350 And what you're seeing what you're NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:21.350 --> 00:31:23.729 going to see in the next slide NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:23.730 --> 00:31:26.850 is what they eventually did. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:26.850 --> 00:31:29.390 So in the decision. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:29.390 --> 00:31:32.558 They said that they find that they responded. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:32.560 --> 00:31:35.864 WADA failed to meet its burden of proof. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:35.870 --> 00:31:39.692 In to the reliability decision limits NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:39.692 --> 00:31:41.880 and establishing the violation NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:41.880 --> 00:31:44.610 by means other than the test, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:44.610 --> 00:31:49.490 namely through admission, that has not the. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:49.490 --> 00:31:52.914 The athlete did not admit to doing this. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:52.920 --> 00:31:53.548 Therefore, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:53.548 --> 00:31:57.316 the ban imposed by the decision NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:31:57.316 --> 00:32:00.099 of the FISTAZ is the. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:00.100 --> 00:32:03.385 Found Federation International skiing doping NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:03.385 --> 00:32:08.179 panel is overturned so he was exonerated. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:08.180 --> 00:32:09.740 Now WADA took this. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:09.740 --> 00:32:12.080 This is the first time that NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:12.167 --> 00:32:14.407 it happened that Wadas was. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:14.410 --> 00:32:15.656 Thrown out. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:15.656 --> 00:32:18.148 What is deeply disappointed, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:18.150 --> 00:32:20.400 it says. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:20.400 --> 00:32:22.031 There are many what the cast panel NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:22.031 --> 00:32:23.798 said is there are many factors in NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:23.798 --> 00:32:25.316 this case which tend to indicate NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:25.368 --> 00:32:26.778 that the athlete did in fact, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:26.780 --> 00:32:29.528 administer exogenous HGH. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:29.528 --> 00:32:32.276 It means WADA, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:32.280 --> 00:32:35.038 it means the water that a likely NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:35.038 --> 00:32:37.246 cheater has evaded the sanction NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:37.246 --> 00:32:39.616 due to a tenuous technicality. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:39.620 --> 00:32:40.840 So that's what we are. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:40.840 --> 00:32:43.240 We statisticians, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:43.240 --> 00:32:45.640 tenuous technicalities. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:45.640 --> 00:32:47.332 Water will therefore encourage NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:47.332 --> 00:32:48.601 anti doping organizations NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:48.601 --> 00:32:50.460 essentially to collect more data. NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:50.460 --> 00:32:52.556 It is not an issue of collecting data, NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:52.560 --> 00:32:54.220 it's collecting data and NOTE Confidence: 0.919171586 00:32:54.220 --> 00:32:55.465 treating it stupidly. NOTE Confidence: 0.770879935714286 00:32:57.830 --> 00:33:01.484 And So what I asked you is, NOTE Confidence: 0.770879935714286 00:33:01.490 --> 00:33:04.129 I wonder if they split into training NOTE Confidence: 0.770879935714286 00:33:04.129 --> 00:33:06.992 and validation sets, or if that too NOTE Confidence: 0.770879935714286 00:33:06.992 --> 00:33:09.157 would be a tenuous technicality. NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:11.180 --> 00:33:13.220 Martin Bang Linmeyer, NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:13.220 --> 00:33:16.980 who developed this test, NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:16.980 --> 00:33:19.290 said pleaded ignorance about what NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:19.290 --> 00:33:21.600 anything that went on concluded. NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:21.600 --> 00:33:23.000 I'm not a statistician, NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:23.000 --> 00:33:24.107 it's their world. NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:24.107 --> 00:33:24.921 Their arguments. NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:24.921 --> 00:33:28.400 I have no idea if it's valid or not. NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:28.400 --> 00:33:31.050 But Krista was very much NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:31.050 --> 00:33:32.640 celebrated in Estonia. NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:32.640 --> 00:33:38.130 Estonia is a very small country politics. NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:38.130 --> 00:33:40.650 And she's at the University of Tartu, NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:40.650 --> 00:33:43.750 which is a great international. NOTE Confidence: 0.716422845 00:33:43.750 --> 00:33:44.570 University. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:33:46.640 --> 00:33:48.570 I was interested in this. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:33:48.570 --> 00:33:50.706 I think this is a pestle. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:33:50.710 --> 00:33:52.430 It looks like one anyway, NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:33:52.430 --> 00:33:55.130 so this is what statisticians do. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:33:55.130 --> 00:33:58.175 Is they get the mortar and pestle NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:33:58.175 --> 00:34:00.902 and take the data and squeeze NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:34:00.902 --> 00:34:06.060 it until it yields evidence. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:34:06.060 --> 00:34:07.720 And even a cartoon. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:34:07.720 --> 00:34:10.920 This one is larger than the others. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:34:10.920 --> 00:34:11.865 I'm sure it. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:34:11.865 --> 00:34:13.755 It used some doping to grow. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:34:13.760 --> 00:34:14.672 Give me a bottle. NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:34:14.672 --> 00:34:16.732 I will not let it slip our our NOTE Confidence: 0.924126034 00:34:16.732 --> 00:34:18.616 hands has happened with Purple Loop. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:22.520 --> 00:34:27.356 What up? It never does the test that I NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:27.356 --> 00:34:29.898 think they should be doing the experiments, NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:29.900 --> 00:34:31.718 but in one of the cases, NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:31.720 --> 00:34:33.197 not none of the ones I mentioned. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:33.200 --> 00:34:38.450 But in another case. They. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:38.450 --> 00:34:41.708 They found that the control that NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:41.708 --> 00:34:43.728 was negative for the B sample. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:43.728 --> 00:34:45.597 What they do is they split the samples NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:45.597 --> 00:34:49.256 in a BA&B and a sample is what they test NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:49.256 --> 00:34:52.329 and then the B samples for confirmation. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:52.330 --> 00:34:55.900 If they see something that's positive. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:55.900 --> 00:34:58.988 And they had a control and the control NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:34:58.988 --> 00:35:02.760 was negative, but it tested positive. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:02.760 --> 00:35:04.480 So what did they do? NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:04.480 --> 00:35:07.180 Well, they got another machine when NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:07.180 --> 00:35:09.594 they got another machine they ran NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:09.594 --> 00:35:12.050 it and the control turned out to be NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:12.122 --> 00:35:15.398 negative and the B sample was positive. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:15.400 --> 00:35:20.590 My notion here as I told the team is that. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:20.590 --> 00:35:21.810 This is not a case. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:21.810 --> 00:35:24.555 They can't go forward admitting NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:24.555 --> 00:35:27.300 that they made a mistake. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:27.300 --> 00:35:28.952 On this, uh, control. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:28.952 --> 00:35:31.986 This is an incidence where you know NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:31.986 --> 00:35:34.366 what's the false positive rate. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:34.370 --> 00:35:36.610 This is a false positive, NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:36.610 --> 00:35:39.704 and it happens in the ordinary practice, NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:39.710 --> 00:35:42.848 many of them they're not caught, NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:42.850 --> 00:35:44.053 but this one. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:44.053 --> 00:35:47.600 They knew because it was a negative control. NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:47.600 --> 00:35:50.068 It wasn't summarily dropped NOTE Confidence: 0.704741565 00:35:50.068 --> 00:35:53.548 another and this is almost as bad. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:35:56.230 --> 00:35:59.044 This is a note, a literal quote. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:35:59.050 --> 00:36:03.505 I've exed out the specifics for privacy sake NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:03.505 --> 00:36:05.830 from the International Olympic Committee NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:05.830 --> 00:36:09.308 to the lab that was testing the B sample, NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:09.310 --> 00:36:12.208 and they said this sample must NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:12.208 --> 00:36:15.499 be analyzed for and it specifies. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:15.500 --> 00:36:18.727 The concentration of the specific found in NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:18.727 --> 00:36:22.256 the A sample was estimated to be around NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:22.256 --> 00:36:25.490 and they say this very specifically. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:25.490 --> 00:36:28.706 These are not X is this NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:28.706 --> 00:36:30.850 is a particular value. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:30.850 --> 00:36:33.640 The IOC is telling the confirmatory NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:33.640 --> 00:36:36.888 lab exactly what they want it to find. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:36.890 --> 00:36:39.746 This introduces a huge bias in in NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:39.746 --> 00:36:41.698 the processing greatly influences NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:41.698 --> 00:36:43.008 the conclusions. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:43.010 --> 00:36:45.348 The confirming lab might even carry out NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:45.348 --> 00:36:47.710 analysis until it successfully confirms, NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:47.710 --> 00:36:49.906 you know, do it until you get it right NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:49.910 --> 00:36:52.370 and it's not confirmation at all. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:52.370 --> 00:36:54.592 It leaves no hope of independent NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:54.592 --> 00:36:55.054 confirmation. NOTE Confidence: 0.864432134285714 00:36:55.054 --> 00:36:58.750 So these are things that could be done. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:00.990 --> 00:37:03.378 And one of the. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:03.380 --> 00:37:08.350 That you know, identify these errors, NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:08.350 --> 00:37:10.634 address the contamination possibility. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:10.634 --> 00:37:13.489 There's a possibility of passive NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:13.489 --> 00:37:16.222 exposure to these things that you could NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:16.222 --> 00:37:20.920 get it from another athlete who was. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:20.920 --> 00:37:25.420 That you were intimate with, for example. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:25.420 --> 00:37:28.552 There's a possibility that a competitor NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:28.552 --> 00:37:31.720 had in fact spiked your drink. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:31.720 --> 00:37:35.620 With trauma Pasaden, which is that? NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:35.620 --> 00:37:39.680 Saying that. The. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:39.680 --> 00:37:46.220 Camilla Valeeva was accused of using. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:46.220 --> 00:37:48.476 So all of these things matter. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:48.480 --> 00:37:50.640 This is not an easy problem. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:50.640 --> 00:37:53.976 They don't have people that understand NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:53.980 --> 00:37:58.306 how to make even minor inroads. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:37:58.310 --> 00:38:00.585 So I wanna mention this NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:00.585 --> 00:38:02.405 competitor spiking a drink. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:02.410 --> 00:38:05.179 This is Camila. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:05.180 --> 00:38:07.604 This you may recognize the names NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:07.604 --> 00:38:09.730 Tonya Harding in the front NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:09.730 --> 00:38:11.890 and Nancy Kerrigan the back. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:11.890 --> 00:38:14.176 This is the so called whack NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:14.176 --> 00:38:15.700 hurt around the world. NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:15.700 --> 00:38:21.235 This is Tonya Harding's ex husband and NOTE Confidence: 0.862750285 00:38:21.235 --> 00:38:24.745 her manager arranged for somebody to. NOTE Confidence: 0.879256589166666 00:38:27.060 --> 00:38:30.364 To try to break the leg of NOTE Confidence: 0.879256589166666 00:38:30.364 --> 00:38:32.840 Nancy Kerrigan who was Tonya NOTE Confidence: 0.879256589166666 00:38:32.840 --> 00:38:35.444 Harding's main competition in NOTE Confidence: 0.879256589166666 00:38:35.444 --> 00:38:38.534 the Olympic Trials in January? NOTE Confidence: 0.879256589166666 00:38:38.534 --> 00:38:41.369 Notice that January 6th seems NOTE Confidence: 0.879256589166666 00:38:41.369 --> 00:38:45.269 to be a day for attacking. NOTE Confidence: 0.884172432222222 00:38:47.560 --> 00:38:50.325 There's another notable January 6th NOTE Confidence: 0.884172432222222 00:38:50.325 --> 00:38:53.930 that you may remember. Yeah anyway. NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:38:56.280 --> 00:38:58.416 It was they made a movie. NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:38:58.420 --> 00:38:59.855 If if you don't know this story, NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:38:59.860 --> 00:39:04.236 there's a an award winning movie I Tonya. NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:04.240 --> 00:39:07.080 That you can check out. NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:07.080 --> 00:39:10.797 What and this is just what what happens next? NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:10.800 --> 00:39:14.000 But you what point of this is that? NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:14.000 --> 00:39:16.982 If they had been somewhat more clever NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:16.982 --> 00:39:20.357 and trying to do what they were doing, NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:20.360 --> 00:39:22.466 they could have just dropped a NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:22.466 --> 00:39:25.305 little bit of trauma tacitean into NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:25.305 --> 00:39:30.135 Nancy Kerrigan's coffee, or or coke. NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:30.140 --> 00:39:32.550 Or whatever. NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:32.550 --> 00:39:34.979 Of course they would take a chance NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:34.979 --> 00:39:37.479 that in fact it was performance NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:37.479 --> 00:39:40.239 enhancing and they didn't test Nancy. NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:40.240 --> 00:39:42.496 Anyway, the point is that this NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:42.496 --> 00:39:44.610 kind of thing could happen. NOTE Confidence: 0.916457356666667 00:39:44.610 --> 00:39:46.450 You didn't take it intentionally. NOTE Confidence: 0.947973424 00:39:49.080 --> 00:39:50.290 I'll let you read these. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:39:55.790 --> 00:39:57.599 As regarding publish, NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:39:57.599 --> 00:40:00.386 so this is nature's editorial. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:00.386 --> 00:40:02.338 They were strongly positive NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:02.338 --> 00:40:04.900 about what I was saying. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:04.900 --> 00:40:07.287 And they concluded and agreeing with me, NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:07.290 --> 00:40:09.642 it's nature's view that the anti NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:09.642 --> 00:40:11.210 doping authorities have fostered NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:11.270 --> 00:40:13.200 a sporting culture of suspicion, NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:13.200 --> 00:40:14.388 secrecy and fear. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:14.388 --> 00:40:15.972 Detecting cheats is meant NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:15.972 --> 00:40:17.160 to promote fairness, NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:17.160 --> 00:40:19.197 but drug testing should not be exempt NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:19.197 --> 00:40:20.806 from the scientific principles and NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:20.806 --> 00:40:22.840 standards that apply to other medical. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:22.840 --> 00:40:26.340 Science is just such as disease diagnostics. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:26.340 --> 00:40:27.040 What, what? NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:27.040 --> 00:40:29.840 What it does is they don't tell anybody NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:29.909 --> 00:40:32.380 how they come up with these numbers. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:32.380 --> 00:40:33.904 Uh, I'll skip multiplicities. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:33.904 --> 00:40:36.190 I'm going to be talking about NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:36.254 --> 00:40:38.450 multiplicities in another session. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:38.450 --> 00:40:45.160 This is Daniel Virtue a. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:45.160 --> 00:40:49.370 Kenian long distance Runner NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:49.370 --> 00:40:51.440 Marathon winner London. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:51.440 --> 00:40:54.500 He was banned for doping. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:54.500 --> 00:40:56.240 So water claims or people NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:56.240 --> 00:40:57.980 that work with water claim NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:58.048 --> 00:40:59.988 doping triggers Philly logic, NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:40:59.990 --> 00:41:03.358 physiological changes that provide. NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:41:03.360 --> 00:41:04.512 Physiological enhancements, NOTE Confidence: 0.848513065 00:41:04.512 --> 00:41:09.120 but so do other things besides the doping. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:12.100 --> 00:41:14.660 The athlete Biological profile provides NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:14.660 --> 00:41:18.270 proof of a doping doping offense and NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:18.270 --> 00:41:21.140 this is lots of statistical stuff here. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:21.140 --> 00:41:23.855 Kind of neat and away what NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:23.855 --> 00:41:27.796 this is is an actual doper. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:27.796 --> 00:41:32.324 A bill per they claimed was a doper, NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:32.330 --> 00:41:34.515 but an actual athlete and NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:34.515 --> 00:41:36.263 looking at his hemoglobin. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:36.270 --> 00:41:37.082 We're talking. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:37.082 --> 00:41:41.171 This is what they do is they use a point NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:41.171 --> 00:41:44.660 or they use their own blood Lance Armstrong. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:44.660 --> 00:41:48.320 For example, was notorious for this NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:48.320 --> 00:41:53.024 and to during the course of the meat. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:53.030 --> 00:41:55.379 You know stop off at A at a hotel NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:55.379 --> 00:41:57.944 or something for the night on the NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:41:57.944 --> 00:42:01.250 tour to France. And. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:01.250 --> 00:42:03.368 Put blood back into your bloodstream NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:03.368 --> 00:42:05.689 that came when you were resting. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:05.690 --> 00:42:09.040 You know some time ago. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:09.040 --> 00:42:14.516 And what they found was that what these NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:14.516 --> 00:42:17.340 things are are the limits and the limits. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:17.340 --> 00:42:19.020 With time as you go along. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:19.020 --> 00:42:21.568 But the critical thing in looking at NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:21.568 --> 00:42:23.620 this presentation is this last one. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:23.620 --> 00:42:25.930 What they've done is adapt NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:25.930 --> 00:42:27.720 to this athlete's profile. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:27.720 --> 00:42:30.730 And then they found an extreme well. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:30.730 --> 00:42:32.618 Of course, there's going to be an extreme, NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:32.620 --> 00:42:34.760 so how extreme is it? NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:34.760 --> 00:42:39.200 The so called off score is the important. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:39.200 --> 00:42:43.000 I think the primary analysis that they do, NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:43.000 --> 00:42:46.132 which is a linear combination of NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:46.132 --> 00:42:49.620 hemoglobin and this thing called represent NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:49.620 --> 00:42:52.895 represent in a negative direction. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:52.900 --> 00:42:55.600 So the fact that this is small makes NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:55.600 --> 00:42:59.504 this thing even bigger and goes up to. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:42:59.504 --> 00:43:03.505 99 and 99 is bigger than 89 and NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:03.505 --> 00:43:08.150 therefore this guy is a doper. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:08.150 --> 00:43:10.824 There's lots of stuff going on here. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:10.830 --> 00:43:11.960 Distributional assumptions. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:11.960 --> 00:43:14.785 What about the extreme value? NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:14.790 --> 00:43:15.960 Of a distribution, NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:15.960 --> 00:43:18.300 do you consider that are their NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:18.300 --> 00:43:20.960 multiplicities? And the answer is yes. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:20.960 --> 00:43:22.988 The water's analysis is Bayesian and NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:22.988 --> 00:43:25.690 to the extent to which it's Bayesian, NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:25.690 --> 00:43:27.152 it's correct. NOTE Confidence: 0.801678754545455 00:43:27.152 --> 00:43:31.520 But the assumptions are very questionable. NOTE Confidence: 0.95078816 00:43:34.280 --> 00:43:36.752 So I'm done with that and NOTE Confidence: 0.95078816 00:43:36.752 --> 00:43:39.510 I'm going to do something. NOTE Confidence: 0.95078816 00:43:39.510 --> 00:43:42.230 Weird, maybe I'm going to try to show NOTE Confidence: 0.95078816 00:43:42.230 --> 00:43:45.449 you a four minute clip of Mary Kling, NOTE Confidence: 0.95078816 00:43:45.450 --> 00:43:50.770 Mary Claire King, who is the discoverer. NOTE Confidence: 0.95078816 00:43:50.770 --> 00:43:56.860 Of BRCA 1 and it's the last four NOTE Confidence: 0.95078816 00:43:56.860 --> 00:44:00.303 minutes of a 12 minute story that NOTE Confidence: 0.95078816 00:44:00.303 --> 00:44:03.650 she tells in the story. She. NOTE Confidence: 0.744535875 00:44:06.870 --> 00:44:08.100 We go here for a minute. NOTE Confidence: 0.919135168 00:44:10.420 --> 00:44:13.730 In the story she indicates. It works. NOTE Confidence: 0.79363644 00:44:15.760 --> 00:44:17.443 I think what I have to do is this. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:31.730 --> 00:44:33.870 Please welcome to the stage. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:33.870 --> 00:44:39.696 The magnificent doctor Mary Claire king. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:39.700 --> 00:44:42.418 OK, so I'm going to skip the first part. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:42.420 --> 00:44:45.760 It's it's really sad. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:45.760 --> 00:44:48.070 She indicates that her husband NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:48.070 --> 00:44:51.150 left her for a graduate student. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:51.150 --> 00:44:54.094 Two days later, she had to be in NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:54.094 --> 00:44:56.270 Washington DC for a site visit, NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:56.270 --> 00:44:58.646 reverse site visit for the NCI. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:44:58.650 --> 00:45:03.670 This is back in 1980 something. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:03.670 --> 00:45:06.740 And dumb. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:06.740 --> 00:45:09.414 See in order to make that trip, NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:09.420 --> 00:45:12.408 she had her mother coming out. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:12.410 --> 00:45:15.308 And her mother when she told her NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:15.308 --> 00:45:18.457 mother that her husband had left her. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:18.460 --> 00:45:20.672 Her mother was so upset she couldn't NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:20.672 --> 00:45:22.200 possibly take care of Emily. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:22.200 --> 00:45:24.380 Her five year old daughter. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:24.380 --> 00:45:28.110 So she decided that she take Emily NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:28.110 --> 00:45:30.090 back to take her mother back NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:30.090 --> 00:45:32.760 to the airport and that she and NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:32.760 --> 00:45:35.118 Emily would fly to Washington and NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:35.118 --> 00:45:37.526 she'd get her one of her friends NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:37.526 --> 00:45:39.836 from mentor to watch Emily while NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:39.836 --> 00:45:41.856 she was in the interview. NOTE Confidence: 0.933678574 00:45:41.860 --> 00:45:45.050 And so I'm going to pick it up from there. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:45:49.340 --> 00:45:51.650 And this gives you an NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:45:51.650 --> 00:45:55.019 exposure to Mary Claire King. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:45:55.020 --> 00:45:58.368 And a neat story. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:45:58.370 --> 00:45:59.810 For my mother to have the NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:45:59.810 --> 00:46:01.450 ticket to go back to Chicago, NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:01.450 --> 00:46:03.070 and if I remember correctly, NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:03.070 --> 00:46:04.428 her flight was as it were at NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:04.428 --> 00:46:05.569 10:00 o'clock in the morning, NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:05.570 --> 00:46:08.648 so we left Berkeley and plenty of time in NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:08.648 --> 00:46:11.209 principle to get to San Francisco Airport. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:11.210 --> 00:46:13.019 And of course, it was one of those days NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:13.019 --> 00:46:15.290 at the Bay Bridge was just totally locked up. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:15.290 --> 00:46:18.244 It was just horrible, horrible drive across. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:18.250 --> 00:46:21.018 And what should have been a drive of 45 NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:21.018 --> 00:46:24.510 minutes an hour and 45 minutes to get there. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:24.510 --> 00:46:26.967 So my mom's flight was about to leave in NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:26.967 --> 00:46:29.440 15 minutes and and Emily's in my fight NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:29.440 --> 00:46:32.056 was about to leave in 45 minutes and the NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:32.056 --> 00:46:35.260 line to pick up tickets which I had mind. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:35.260 --> 00:46:37.390 Of course I needed to pick up hers was long, NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:37.390 --> 00:46:39.120 long, long, long long line. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:39.120 --> 00:46:40.506 And of course we had our suitcases. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:40.510 --> 00:46:41.730 My mom had her suitcase. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:41.730 --> 00:46:44.310 My mom was already fairly frail. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:44.310 --> 00:46:47.244 So am I in my mother and I were NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:47.244 --> 00:46:49.489 standing in the line and I said, NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:49.489 --> 00:46:51.367 mom, can you make it down NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:51.367 --> 00:46:53.566 to your plane on your own? NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:53.570 --> 00:46:54.656 Bear in mind there's no security NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:54.656 --> 00:46:55.749 in these days there's but there. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:55.750 --> 00:46:57.958 Of course a very long quarters. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:46:57.960 --> 00:47:05.480 And she said no. So I said to Emily. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:47:05.480 --> 00:47:07.580 I'm going to need to go with NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:47:07.580 --> 00:47:09.230 grandma down to her plane, NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:47:09.230 --> 00:47:10.342 and my mother shrieked. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:47:10.342 --> 00:47:12.499 I'm not going to scream into the mic, NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:47:12.500 --> 00:47:13.512 she shrieked. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:47:13.512 --> 00:47:17.054 You can't leave that child here alone. NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:47:17.060 --> 00:47:18.046 And yeah, NOTE Confidence: 0.885118851428571 00:47:18.046 --> 00:47:20.018 fair enough and this. NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:26.200 --> 00:47:28.992 And this unmistakable voice NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:28.992 --> 00:47:32.482 above and behind me said. NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:32.490 --> 00:47:37.380 Emily and I will be fine. NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:37.380 --> 00:47:42.920 And I turned around and I said thank you. NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:42.920 --> 00:47:44.612 And my mother looked at me NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:44.612 --> 00:47:47.488 and said you can't leave him NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:47.488 --> 00:47:49.796 with a total stranger. NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:49.800 --> 00:47:51.784 And I said, mom, NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:51.784 --> 00:47:54.760 if you can't trust Joe DiMaggio, NOTE Confidence: 0.907803888888889 00:47:54.760 --> 00:47:57.248 who can you trust? NOTE Confidence: 0.908691284 00:48:10.240 --> 00:48:12.590 Joe DiMaggio looked at me, NOTE Confidence: 0.908691284 00:48:12.590 --> 00:48:13.970 looked at my mother, NOTE Confidence: 0.908691284 00:48:13.970 --> 00:48:15.695 gave Emily a huge brand, NOTE Confidence: 0.908691284 00:48:15.700 --> 00:48:18.660 put out his hand and said, Hi Emily, NOTE Confidence: 0.908691284 00:48:18.660 --> 00:48:21.380 I'm Joe. And Emily shook his hand. NOTE Confidence: 0.908691284 00:48:21.380 --> 00:48:23.854 And she said, Hello Joe, I'm Emily. NOTE Confidence: 0.908691284 00:48:23.854 --> 00:48:26.398 And I said, mom, let's go so. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:28.510 --> 00:48:30.090 We headed down the hall. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:30.090 --> 00:48:32.169 I got my mother to the plane. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:32.170 --> 00:48:34.402 She got on the plane fine I got back. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:34.410 --> 00:48:36.418 It was probably 2025 minutes by the time NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:36.418 --> 00:48:38.662 I got back and by that time Emily and NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:38.662 --> 00:48:41.016 Joe were all the way up at the front NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:41.016 --> 00:48:43.888 chatting with each other by the counter. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:43.890 --> 00:48:44.802 Joe DiMaggio had wrangled NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:44.802 --> 00:48:46.170 and we stick it for her. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:46.170 --> 00:48:48.850 She was holding her ticket. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:48.850 --> 00:48:51.130 He was clearly waiting to get NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:51.130 --> 00:48:53.610 to his point until I got back. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:53.610 --> 00:48:57.552 So I looked at him and I said thank NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:48:57.552 --> 00:49:01.390 you very much and he said my pleasure. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:49:01.390 --> 00:49:03.346 He headed off down the hall. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:49:03.350 --> 00:49:04.466 He turned right. NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:49:04.466 --> 00:49:06.698 He gave me this huge salute NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:49:06.698 --> 00:49:09.167 and wave and a tremendous grin NOTE Confidence: 0.952189356 00:49:09.170 --> 00:49:10.696 and went off to his own plane. NOTE Confidence: 0.914932858571429 00:49:12.870 --> 00:49:15.026 Emily and I went to Washington DC. NOTE Confidence: 0.914932858571429 00:49:15.030 --> 00:49:16.546 The interview went fine. NOTE Confidence: 0.914932858571429 00:49:16.546 --> 00:49:19.679 I got the grant and that was the NOTE Confidence: 0.914932858571429 00:49:19.679 --> 00:49:22.139 beginning of the grant that now 33 NOTE Confidence: 0.914932858571429 00:49:22.139 --> 00:49:24.260 years later has become the story of NOTE Confidence: 0.914932858571429 00:49:24.326 --> 00:49:26.815 inherited breast cancer and the beginning NOTE Confidence: 0.914932858571429 00:49:26.815 --> 00:49:29.160 of the project that became DRCA 1. NOTE Confidence: 0.705103423333333 00:49:50.780 --> 00:49:51.788 Jackie you there? NOTE Confidence: 0.83947601 00:49:58.820 --> 00:50:00.690 Jack, are you there? Yes, NOTE Confidence: 0.83947601 00:50:00.690 --> 00:50:04.956 yes I I can't get back to the meeting. NOTE Confidence: 0.83947601 00:50:04.960 --> 00:50:08.480 Oh pressing. No, you just said stop, NOTE Confidence: 0.83947601 00:50:08.480 --> 00:50:10.880 you're still sharing your screen. NOTE Confidence: 0.83947601 00:50:10.880 --> 00:50:14.890 OK, so you see my screen now. NOTE Confidence: 0.4057751 00:50:17.170 --> 00:50:20.842 Yes now. OK, so that I I hope NOTE Confidence: 0.4057751 00:50:20.842 --> 00:50:22.740 you like that story. It it. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:26.800 --> 00:50:29.790 It it it, it makes me cry every time I NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:29.872 --> 00:50:35.570 I hear it, but anyway, so BRC April. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:35.570 --> 00:50:37.705 This is you. What you should do NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:37.705 --> 00:50:40.148 is to find out more about this. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:40.150 --> 00:50:43.755 Google Giovanni, probably Johnny's website NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:43.755 --> 00:50:47.860 based Ben Mendel just Google based Bendel, NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:47.860 --> 00:50:51.120 probably Shawnee, and it'll take you there. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:51.120 --> 00:50:52.640 And this is your vonnie. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:52.640 --> 00:50:56.573 Who is the big person in this BRCA pro? NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:56.580 --> 00:50:59.868 I mean I'm a member of the supporting NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:50:59.868 --> 00:51:04.816 cast of which is base bundle is huge. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:04.820 --> 00:51:10.040 And this is the the lab. Uh. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:10.040 --> 00:51:14.345 I I have like 6 minutes left. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:14.350 --> 00:51:15.409 Which is fine. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:15.409 --> 00:51:17.174 I can give you know, NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:17.180 --> 00:51:20.666 the the superficial issues here that you, NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:20.670 --> 00:51:23.544 Ronnie and I are back in the 1990s, NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:23.544 --> 00:51:27.288 shortly after Mary Claire King had NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:27.288 --> 00:51:29.834 made this discovery and information NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:29.834 --> 00:51:31.856 was accruing about what was the NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:31.856 --> 00:51:34.283 you know how bad was it to carry NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:34.283 --> 00:51:37.860 one of these mutations, etc. NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:37.860 --> 00:51:40.520 There is all kinds of theories in NOTE Confidence: 0.793793634230769 00:51:40.520 --> 00:51:43.450 the among the medical people about. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:51:45.610 --> 00:51:49.193 Who should be? Who should get mastectomies? NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:51:49.193 --> 00:51:56.530 Who should get who for ectomy's? And the. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:51:56.530 --> 00:51:59.176 What we proposed what I proposed in NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:51:59.176 --> 00:52:02.531 the Dukes 4 this is a specialized NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:02.531 --> 00:52:04.663 program of research excellence. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:04.670 --> 00:52:07.659 One of the early spores was a NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:07.659 --> 00:52:10.550 breast cancer spore at Duke, NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:10.550 --> 00:52:14.300 and all spores are about 5050. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:14.300 --> 00:52:16.310 Some spores currently, NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:16.310 --> 00:52:19.518 and overtime it's increased looks NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:19.518 --> 00:52:22.686 at like 20 different disease types NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:22.690 --> 00:52:24.448 which breast cancer is only one. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:24.450 --> 00:52:26.295 But this for. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:26.295 --> 00:52:30.600 We proposed a project that was statistics. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:30.600 --> 00:52:33.175 Namely, building what was eventually NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:33.175 --> 00:52:36.140 would eventually become B RCA Pro. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:36.140 --> 00:52:37.820 The pro stood for probability. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:37.820 --> 00:52:40.106 We didn't name it until after. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:40.110 --> 00:52:44.500 After the initial publication, actually. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:44.500 --> 00:52:48.889 And the the development of it was NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:48.889 --> 00:52:52.819 within the context of of the spore, NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:52.820 --> 00:52:55.229 and it became. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:55.230 --> 00:52:58.248 It's now used by most genetic NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:52:58.248 --> 00:53:02.500 counselors that deal with cancer. NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:53:02.500 --> 00:53:08.494 And it it the story is a huge NOTE Confidence: 0.78099454 00:53:08.494 --> 00:53:10.430 credit to Giovanni. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:12.660 --> 00:53:16.818 So this is these are the data that go NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:16.818 --> 00:53:20.425 into the the program of what you're NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:20.425 --> 00:53:24.378 looking at here is just a background NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:24.378 --> 00:53:28.318 data and the lower parts here C&D. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:28.318 --> 00:53:30.958 This is from this article, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:30.960 --> 00:53:32.976 and this is for BRCA one only. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:32.980 --> 00:53:36.548 BRCA 2 didn't come until the next set NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:36.548 --> 00:53:41.540 of articles and forever after. The. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:41.540 --> 00:53:44.348 This is the breast cancer cumulative NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:44.348 --> 00:53:48.061 incidence for normals, or for everybody, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:48.061 --> 00:53:50.699 including presumably some mutations. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:50.699 --> 00:53:53.814 This is for mutation carriers, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:53.820 --> 00:53:56.646 and so you'll notice the the the number here. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:53:56.650 --> 00:54:00.172 If you live long enough and you are carrier, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:00.172 --> 00:54:03.692 you're very likely like 80% chance to get NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:03.692 --> 00:54:10.390 breast cancer with a peak in late 40s or 50. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:10.390 --> 00:54:12.562 Ovarian cancer is somewhat NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:12.562 --> 00:54:15.820 later in terms of the peak. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:15.820 --> 00:54:18.304 It's actually similar to, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:18.304 --> 00:54:20.788 but much higher than. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:20.790 --> 00:54:22.368 And the scale is different here. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:22.370 --> 00:54:25.595 Much, much higher than the NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:25.595 --> 00:54:27.720 no mutation ovarian cancer, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:27.720 --> 00:54:30.625 so both of these are very common, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:30.630 --> 00:54:33.422 and you'd ought to be able to see NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:33.422 --> 00:54:35.397 whether or not somebody carries NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:35.397 --> 00:54:38.176 a mutation in the brain at a. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:38.180 --> 00:54:41.770 Breast cancer gene These are NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:41.770 --> 00:54:43.924 the likelihood ratios, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:43.930 --> 00:54:44.990 which is what you consider. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:44.990 --> 00:54:45.998 So, for example, NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:45.998 --> 00:54:48.014 this is a single woman for NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:48.014 --> 00:54:50.079 you don't know her history. NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:50.080 --> 00:54:52.044 What's the likelihood ratio NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:52.044 --> 00:54:54.499 of carrying a mutation versus NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:54.499 --> 00:54:56.678 not carrying a mutation? NOTE Confidence: 0.894949218181818 00:54:56.680 --> 00:54:58.830 And these are posterior probabilities. NOTE Confidence: 0.94794914 00:55:01.510 --> 00:55:04.086 Based on the fact that you have NOTE Confidence: 0.94794914 00:55:04.086 --> 00:55:06.195 breast cancer at at whatever age NOTE Confidence: 0.94794914 00:55:06.195 --> 00:55:08.730 it is so if it's a young age, NOTE Confidence: 0.94794914 00:55:08.730 --> 00:55:12.450 you're very likely. Uhm, NOTE Confidence: 0.94794914 00:55:12.450 --> 00:55:17.170 relatively so to be carrying a mutation. NOTE Confidence: 0.94794914 00:55:17.170 --> 00:55:21.630 Now translating that into. NOTE Confidence: 0.94794914 00:55:21.630 --> 00:55:24.685 Calculating probability for other family NOTE Confidence: 0.94794914 00:55:24.685 --> 00:55:28.680 history is what BRCA Pro is about. NOTE Confidence: 0.867765892857143 00:55:30.730 --> 00:55:33.166 It uses first and second degree relatives, NOTE Confidence: 0.867765892857143 00:55:33.170 --> 00:55:34.930 their status, their age, NOTE Confidence: 0.867765892857143 00:55:34.930 --> 00:55:37.130 whether they have been diagnosed NOTE Confidence: 0.867765892857143 00:55:37.130 --> 00:55:41.078 with either breast or ovarian NOTE Confidence: 0.867765892857143 00:55:41.078 --> 00:55:44.306 cancer and other cancers as well. NOTE Confidence: 0.867765892857143 00:55:44.310 --> 00:55:47.310 Prostate cancer, for example. NOTE Confidence: 0.867765892857143 00:55:47.310 --> 00:55:51.360 For for males, breast cancer for males too. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:55:53.840 --> 00:55:56.768 And this is what it what it uses. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:55:56.770 --> 00:55:58.900 What we calculate the many NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:55:58.900 --> 00:56:01.030 references Giovanni and his team NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:01.107 --> 00:56:05.110 have published over 100 articles. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:05.110 --> 00:56:06.574 Extending BRCA pro. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:06.574 --> 00:56:09.014 Looking at other diseases looking NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:09.014 --> 00:56:13.400 at more recent data, better data. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:13.400 --> 00:56:17.160 Including other cancers, including other. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:17.160 --> 00:56:21.180 You know, perhaps third degree relatives. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:21.180 --> 00:56:23.898 And these are are some examples. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:23.900 --> 00:56:24.660 What I'll do is I'll. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:24.660 --> 00:56:27.568 I'll just tell you. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:27.570 --> 00:56:29.616 What the answers are for these NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:29.616 --> 00:56:32.017 examples and you can go through and NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:32.017 --> 00:56:34.264 see if it seems intuitive to you. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:34.270 --> 00:56:36.606 This is the probe and the yellow arrow. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:36.610 --> 00:56:42.714 She has breast cancer identified at age 38. NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:42.720 --> 00:56:44.440 So does her sister, NOTE Confidence: 0.85747538125 00:56:44.440 --> 00:56:46.850 same age in fact and. NOTE Confidence: 0.78471722375 00:56:49.350 --> 00:56:53.566 And there is a paternal squares or men, NOTE Confidence: 0.78471722375 00:56:53.570 --> 00:56:55.700 a paternal aunt that had NOTE Confidence: 0.78471722375 00:56:55.700 --> 00:56:57.830 breast cancer in her 30s. NOTE Confidence: 0.78471722375 00:56:57.830 --> 00:57:00.764 So what is the context of all of this? NOTE Confidence: 0.78471722375 00:57:00.770 --> 00:57:05.047 It's 55% chance of being a carrier. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:07.680 --> 00:57:09.728 Another family that has NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:09.728 --> 00:57:11.264 much lower probability. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:11.270 --> 00:57:13.862 The connection between this and there NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:13.862 --> 00:57:16.886 is a maternal aunt that had young NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:16.886 --> 00:57:19.910 breath breast cancer but you don't get. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:19.910 --> 00:57:21.630 Your genes from your aunt? NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:21.630 --> 00:57:24.336 You get them from your mother. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:24.340 --> 00:57:25.675 And your mother, NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:25.675 --> 00:57:29.150 in this case, died at age 78, NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:29.150 --> 00:57:31.825 without having breast ovarian cancer. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:31.830 --> 00:57:34.404 On the other hand, here's a sister who did. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:34.410 --> 00:57:36.280 So what is the probability NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:36.280 --> 00:57:37.606 she has breast cancer? NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:37.606 --> 00:57:39.046 And it's not very high. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:39.050 --> 00:57:42.110 This is non askenazi Jews, NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:42.110 --> 00:57:46.166 which are the gene is much less common. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:46.166 --> 00:57:50.550 So I just want to go to one thing here. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:50.550 --> 00:57:54.920 You can look through these. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:54.920 --> 00:57:58.940 We did the BRCA prozen NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:57:58.940 --> 00:58:02.156 validated many many times. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:58:02.160 --> 00:58:04.896 We did 1 validation and I want to NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:58:04.896 --> 00:58:07.934 point to this back in 2002 and we did NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:58:07.934 --> 00:58:09.596 the first validation you see here. NOTE Confidence: 0.920072062857143 00:58:09.600 --> 00:58:10.388 It looks pretty good. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:12.910 --> 00:58:16.690 It is a little bit of underestimation NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:16.690 --> 00:58:20.430 for cases where there's a. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:20.430 --> 00:58:24.590 Where the gene in fact is it mutated. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:24.590 --> 00:58:26.798 So one of the things that we concluded NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:26.798 --> 00:58:28.868 and I said very specifically, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:28.870 --> 00:58:30.984 is that there is no BRCA 3. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:30.990 --> 00:58:34.400 Now, people didn't believe me, I know. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:34.400 --> 00:58:37.700 Biologists who who worked very hard NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:37.700 --> 00:58:42.066 to find BRCA 3 and I said, you know, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:42.066 --> 00:58:45.027 it's explaining almost all of the hereditary NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:45.027 --> 00:58:48.018 breast cancer there some it didn't explain, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:48.020 --> 00:58:50.918 some we found since no BRCA 3, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:50.920 --> 00:58:54.676 there still is no BRCA 3. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:54.680 --> 00:58:58.680 So this is what the. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:58:58.680 --> 00:59:01.698 This is it. I'll stop there. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:01.700 --> 00:59:05.774 Thanks and as indicated by Jack earlier, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:05.780 --> 00:59:06.460 March 22. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:06.460 --> 00:59:08.840 But now we have a question session NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:08.840 --> 00:59:12.186 and I look forward to your comments, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:12.186 --> 00:59:16.551 your criticisms and any questions. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:16.551 --> 00:59:19.236 Jack, thank you very much. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:19.240 --> 00:59:21.020 Don, yeah, you know, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:21.020 --> 00:59:22.800 these two fascinating topic. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:22.800 --> 00:59:24.906 I wish we had more time, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:24.910 --> 00:59:25.861 but there are. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:25.861 --> 00:59:28.400 There are two questions in the chat box, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:28.400 --> 00:59:30.004 so you know Q&A. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:30.004 --> 00:59:33.515 And so went from Diana went from John NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:33.515 --> 00:59:36.527 and for people who have questions, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:36.530 --> 00:59:40.641 please submit through the Q&A box or NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:40.641 --> 00:59:44.501 you can just let me know and I can NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:44.501 --> 00:59:47.910 promote you to penalties you can ask. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:47.910 --> 00:59:49.830 Question in person. NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:49.830 --> 00:59:50.470 Well, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:50.470 --> 00:59:51.640 just yeah, NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:51.640 --> 00:59:54.820 the through the zoom yeah OK NOTE Confidence: 0.92765943625 00:59:54.820 --> 00:59:57.220 so so Diane Diana. NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 00:59:59.620 --> 01:00:01.438 Says so, just out of curiosity, NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:01.440 --> 01:00:03.176 was a water statistician for the world NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:03.176 --> 01:00:05.870 flute case, a real statistician or someone NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:05.870 --> 01:00:08.060 else functioning as a statistician? NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:08.060 --> 01:00:11.770 That's a great great question. NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:11.770 --> 01:00:14.549 Question Diana is my question to you, NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:14.550 --> 01:00:17.076 is what is a real statistician? NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:17.080 --> 01:00:20.699 This person had a degree in statistics. NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:20.700 --> 01:00:22.668 Was a PhD statistician. NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:22.668 --> 01:00:25.641 Is that that would meet somebody's NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:25.641 --> 01:00:28.707 definition as being a real statistician? NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:28.710 --> 01:00:33.288 It wasn't somebody like a button. NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:33.290 --> 01:00:34.919 Bing Lee Meyer, NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:34.919 --> 01:00:38.177 who claimed no knowledge or statistics. NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:38.180 --> 01:00:40.973 But I think it's clear that this NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:40.973 --> 01:00:45.580 was a bad statistician. And. NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:45.580 --> 01:00:48.177 But we're all bad to some extent. NOTE Confidence: 0.671662885833333 01:00:48.180 --> 01:00:49.806 You know, we all make mistakes. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:00:52.280 --> 01:00:53.572 This is a particularly, NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:00:53.572 --> 01:00:56.522 and I think the reason of your question NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:00:56.522 --> 01:00:58.877 is a particularly egregious mistake. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:00:58.880 --> 01:01:02.110 It just doesn't correspond to. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:02.110 --> 01:01:05.640 What one thinks of as NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:05.640 --> 01:01:08.464 being unbiased as being? NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:08.470 --> 01:01:11.428 Uh, seeking the truth if you're NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:11.428 --> 01:01:14.882 seeking the truth as to who was a NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:14.882 --> 01:01:18.330 non doper you don't simply throw out. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:18.330 --> 01:01:20.470 The big numbers. It it. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:20.470 --> 01:01:24.278 It's sort of fundamentally. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:24.280 --> 01:01:27.160 Wrong and you can't. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:27.160 --> 01:01:30.040 It's difficult to imagine NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:30.040 --> 01:01:32.140 statisticians doing that, NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:32.140 --> 01:01:38.169 but I've seen statistical errors as bad as NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:38.169 --> 01:01:41.816 that from other so-called real statisticians, NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:41.816 --> 01:01:44.344 and I think it. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:44.350 --> 01:01:47.752 And it it it's getting worse NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:47.752 --> 01:01:49.453 with data science. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:49.460 --> 01:01:54.180 By the way, talking about the Olympics, NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:54.180 --> 01:01:56.532 did you know that? NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:56.532 --> 01:01:57.708 Nathan Chen. NOTE Confidence: 0.790957186470588 01:01:57.710 --> 01:01:59.180 Who is the? NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:01.490 --> 01:02:06.145 What is he, a skateboarder or ski? NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:06.150 --> 01:02:07.630 It's figure skating there NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:07.630 --> 01:02:09.480 for the men figure skating. NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:09.480 --> 01:02:12.870 Yeah, he's a student at Yale NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:12.870 --> 01:02:16.470 undergraduate at Yale and his major NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:16.470 --> 01:02:19.535 is statistics and data science. NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:19.540 --> 01:02:21.880 Oh, you turn right. NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:21.880 --> 01:02:24.244 Or better, wow so. NOTE Confidence: 0.661168858571428 01:02:24.244 --> 01:02:27.199 We're going to hire him. NOTE Confidence: 0.7307584 01:02:29.300 --> 01:02:35.984 So. There's a history of that at Yale. NOTE Confidence: 0.7307584 01:02:35.990 --> 01:02:39.116 And they you know, the baseball NOTE Confidence: 0.7307584 01:02:39.116 --> 01:02:41.652 the the billyball stuff exactly. NOTE Confidence: 0.7307584 01:02:41.652 --> 01:02:44.364 Who was it? Undergraduate at Yale? NOTE Confidence: 0.7307584 01:02:44.370 --> 01:02:46.030 I don't remember his name, NOTE Confidence: 0.7307584 01:02:46.030 --> 01:02:47.610 Theodore somebody or other. NOTE Confidence: 0.81537696 01:02:49.820 --> 01:02:53.132 That he was an undergrad at NOTE Confidence: 0.81537696 01:02:53.132 --> 01:02:55.340 Yale and did statistics. NOTE Confidence: 0.81537696 01:02:55.340 --> 01:02:58.322 And of course that led to NOTE Confidence: 0.81537696 01:02:58.322 --> 01:03:01.050 the the the billyball thing. NOTE Confidence: 0.81537696 01:03:01.050 --> 01:03:02.850 Well, could could you and could NOTE Confidence: 0.81537696 01:03:02.850 --> 01:03:04.453 you stop sharing so people NOTE Confidence: 0.81537696 01:03:04.453 --> 01:03:06.168 can see you probably better? NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:09.230 --> 01:03:14.800 OK. At stock share. Thank you. NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:14.800 --> 01:03:16.984 Yeah so people can see you better and NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:16.984 --> 01:03:19.491 I think John has a question and also NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:19.491 --> 01:03:22.810 there are two questions on the Q&A box. NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:22.810 --> 01:03:25.314 Yeah, Don absolutely fascinating. NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:25.314 --> 01:03:30.490 You used the magic word that data science. NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:30.490 --> 01:03:33.554 I think you know that we have a NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:33.554 --> 01:03:36.359 forum series on data science and NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:36.359 --> 01:03:38.785 modeling with David Jeffrey and I'm NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:38.785 --> 01:03:41.945 going to invite you to give at least NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:41.945 --> 01:03:44.598 a version of this story or another NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:44.686 --> 01:03:47.789 one that you prefer for that forum, NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:47.789 --> 01:03:50.987 which is a quite different audience. NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:50.990 --> 01:03:52.458 You skipped over the. NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:52.458 --> 01:03:54.293 Now you have a slide, NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:54.300 --> 01:03:57.457 which of course is of current interest. NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:57.460 --> 01:03:59.652 I'm wondering if you wanted to say just NOTE Confidence: 0.6461661 01:03:59.652 --> 01:04:01.167 something briefly about that as well. NOTE Confidence: 0.961039426 01:04:07.940 --> 01:04:09.750 So I'll say something briefly. NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:11.920 --> 01:04:16.440 It's. It's a really sad story. NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:16.440 --> 01:04:21.977 I think it it was handled horribly NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:21.980 --> 01:04:26.066 by WADA by the Olympic Committee. NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:26.070 --> 01:04:29.130 And I mean there there's no way that this NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:29.130 --> 01:04:32.842 should should have happened and you know, NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:32.842 --> 01:04:35.120 I suppose, as luck would have it, NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:35.120 --> 01:04:37.430 she didn't finish in the top three, NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:37.430 --> 01:04:38.910 and so that they were NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:38.910 --> 01:04:40.390 able to award the medals. NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:40.390 --> 01:04:42.450 But they had temporarily said, NOTE Confidence: 0.90187645 01:04:42.450 --> 01:04:43.724 you know, they're going to delay it. NOTE Confidence: 0.89324412 01:04:46.640 --> 01:04:48.866 It it's I, I don't know NOTE Confidence: 0.89324412 01:04:48.866 --> 01:04:50.350 what's going to happen. NOTE Confidence: 0.814807972 01:04:52.550 --> 01:04:58.040 It it, apparently she's admitted. NOTE Confidence: 0.814807972 01:04:58.040 --> 01:04:59.966 That she took this stuff but NOTE Confidence: 0.814807972 01:04:59.966 --> 01:05:02.139 may not have known what it was. NOTE Confidence: 0.814807972 01:05:02.140 --> 01:05:03.519 I don't know. I don't know what NOTE Confidence: 0.814807972 01:05:03.519 --> 01:05:04.800 what the story is going to be, NOTE Confidence: 0.814807972 01:05:04.800 --> 01:05:07.788 and I I think it's bad. NOTE Confidence: 0.814807972 01:05:07.790 --> 01:05:09.899 For everybody concerned. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:12.120 --> 01:05:14.255 And I I I seek others that NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:14.255 --> 01:05:16.429 might have a different view. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:16.430 --> 01:05:20.203 It was a father's heart medication that NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:20.203 --> 01:05:23.778 she claimed was responsible for it. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:23.780 --> 01:05:27.084 And. Well, why would she be taking NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:27.084 --> 01:05:29.580 her father's heart medication? NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:29.580 --> 01:05:32.142 Hello how how it might have NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:32.142 --> 01:05:33.850 contaminated something and they NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:33.928 --> 01:05:36.316 were supposed to be 3 medication. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:36.320 --> 01:05:38.490 The story is a little muddy at NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:38.490 --> 01:05:40.795 this at this point aside from NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:40.795 --> 01:05:42.960 the statistical issues I guess. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:42.960 --> 01:05:45.774 Well, yeah, unfortunately it is something NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:45.774 --> 01:05:48.640 that's that's on the list and it, NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:48.640 --> 01:05:50.980 you know, a major question. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:50.980 --> 01:05:53.968 This brings up is do these NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:53.968 --> 01:05:55.960 things really help performance? NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:55.960 --> 01:05:59.254 Some of them, of course have been shown to. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:05:59.260 --> 01:06:00.316 I mean, NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:00.316 --> 01:06:04.170 look at the steroids that Barry Bonds, NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:04.170 --> 01:06:07.195 for example and and others. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:07.200 --> 01:06:09.340 So some of them clearly. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:09.340 --> 01:06:14.148 But I I remember discussion with an athlete. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:14.150 --> 01:06:14.658 Yeah, NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:14.658 --> 01:06:18.094 we're talking about testosterone and he said. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:18.094 --> 01:06:23.518 You know the DH EA is on the banned list. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:23.520 --> 01:06:26.580 And it one of the substance that it turns NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:26.580 --> 01:06:31.128 into is that testosterone said, I tried that. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:31.130 --> 01:06:33.210 And it didn't do anything. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:33.210 --> 01:06:34.986 It was as though I wasn't taking anything. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:34.990 --> 01:06:36.806 So maybe that's true. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:36.806 --> 01:06:38.168 Maybe it's not, NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:38.170 --> 01:06:40.458 but there are certainly things on the banned NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:40.458 --> 01:06:42.776 list that shouldn't be on the banned list. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:42.780 --> 01:06:47.016 And how does how does the? NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:47.020 --> 01:06:49.110 One of the things the NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:49.110 --> 01:06:50.364 issue statistical issue, NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:50.370 --> 01:06:52.375 or at least it calculational NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:52.375 --> 01:06:54.180 issue is what are we calculating? NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:54.180 --> 01:06:56.165 Are we calculating the probability NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:06:56.165 --> 01:07:00.588 that this person used any substance? NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:07:00.588 --> 01:07:04.216 Or a particular substance. NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:07:04.220 --> 01:07:06.250 And if we're going to be doing NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:07:06.250 --> 01:07:07.700 these positive tests where you NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:07:07.700 --> 01:07:09.527 see if you can pick up something NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:07:09.527 --> 01:07:12.000 you know you don't want fault NOTE Confidence: 0.886544630833333 01:07:12.000 --> 01:07:14.310 pot false negatives either. NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:16.470 --> 01:07:18.367 In a way that's a cleaner thing, NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:18.370 --> 01:07:19.615 a false positive. NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:19.615 --> 01:07:22.105 If you declare a false positive, NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:22.110 --> 01:07:26.928 this ruins the the athlete's career. NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:26.930 --> 01:07:29.030 They may be banned for four years, NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:29.030 --> 01:07:30.926 but you know it's the prime of their NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:30.926 --> 01:07:32.852 life and also they carry this stigma NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:32.852 --> 01:07:35.860 with them and there have been many NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:35.860 --> 01:07:38.770 athletes who have killed themselves. NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:38.770 --> 01:07:41.190 I shouldn't say many, NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:41.190 --> 01:07:44.540 but you know more than you can count on one. NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:44.540 --> 01:07:46.248 Fingers on one hand, NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:46.248 --> 01:07:47.529 they've killed themselves NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:47.529 --> 01:07:50.140 because of the what has happened. NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:50.140 --> 01:07:52.456 What probably most of them were NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:52.456 --> 01:07:54.740 were in fact overs but false NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:54.740 --> 01:07:56.220 negatives is another story. NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:56.220 --> 01:07:58.686 I mean, I would be certainly NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:07:58.690 --> 01:08:01.238 very interested in promoting NOTE Confidence: 0.844322044285714 01:08:01.238 --> 01:08:03.149 eliminating false negatives. NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:06.020 --> 01:08:07.948 So yeah, two questions. NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:07.948 --> 01:08:09.790 Yeah, in the Q&A box, yeah, NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:09.790 --> 01:08:12.830 so Stan Alton really good. NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:12.830 --> 01:08:14.828 Had a question about the lab NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:14.828 --> 01:08:16.160 results presented for athletes NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:16.219 --> 01:08:18.139 would have been more informative NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:18.139 --> 01:08:20.059 had uncertainty limits been plotted NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:20.116 --> 01:08:21.808 for each analytic measurement, NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:21.810 --> 01:08:24.374 especially on the repeated NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:24.374 --> 01:08:27.579 measures of the same athlete. NOTE Confidence: 0.580530362 01:08:27.580 --> 01:08:29.550 Yes, absolutely. NOTE Confidence: 0.853575332 01:08:31.600 --> 01:08:34.970 The problem with that stand. NOTE Confidence: 0.853575332 01:08:34.970 --> 01:08:38.113 Is it doesn't? It would be very NOTE Confidence: 0.853575332 01:08:38.113 --> 01:08:40.844 difficult to account for things NOTE Confidence: 0.853575332 01:08:40.844 --> 01:08:43.568 like contamination. Or, you know, NOTE Confidence: 0.853575332 01:08:43.568 --> 01:08:47.848 this is not the the the passive. NOTE Confidence: 0.859433326666667 01:08:50.830 --> 01:08:53.885 Exposure, it's very difficult to NOTE Confidence: 0.859433326666667 01:08:53.885 --> 01:08:56.940 incorporate those kinds of errors NOTE Confidence: 0.859433326666667 01:08:57.034 --> 01:09:00.089 for those kinds of uncertainties, NOTE Confidence: 0.859433326666667 01:09:00.090 --> 01:09:03.210 but certainly the measurement NOTE Confidence: 0.859433326666667 01:09:03.210 --> 01:09:05.140 uncertainty. Yes, absolutely. NOTE Confidence: 0.805582167357143 01:09:07.470 --> 01:09:08.418 Sharon Schneider, NOTE Confidence: 0.805582167357143 01:09:08.418 --> 01:09:11.262 have you worked on breast cancer NOTE Confidence: 0.805582167357143 01:09:11.262 --> 01:09:12.723 probability algorithms including NOTE Confidence: 0.805582167357143 01:09:12.723 --> 01:09:15.474 weight or obesity for risk factors? NOTE Confidence: 0.805582167357143 01:09:15.474 --> 01:09:17.864 If a first generation relative NOTE Confidence: 0.805582167357143 01:09:17.864 --> 01:09:20.130 had breast cancer so. NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:22.600 --> 01:09:24.427 I I don't know about probability algorithms. NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:24.430 --> 01:09:27.415 I know that Giovanni has NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:27.415 --> 01:09:29.206 incorporated other things, NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:29.210 --> 01:09:32.666 but in terms of risk for breast cancer. NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:32.670 --> 01:09:34.567 You know, I read about this thing. NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:34.570 --> 01:09:39.160 Wait, I read about alcohol that somehow NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:39.160 --> 01:09:41.285 it's associated with breast cancer. NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:41.290 --> 01:09:45.190 I happen to serve on the. NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:45.190 --> 01:09:47.350 Screening and prevention editorial board NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:47.350 --> 01:09:51.137 for the NCI and have for the past 25 years. NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:51.140 --> 01:09:52.395 That's one of the things NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:52.395 --> 01:09:53.399 I'll be talking about, NOTE Confidence: 0.843871962857143 01:09:53.400 --> 01:09:56.200 but I talked about. The NOTE Confidence: 0.9175599 01:09:58.430 --> 01:10:00.810 Multiplicity's and one of the NOTE Confidence: 0.9175599 01:10:00.810 --> 01:10:02.902 things that I've read a lot about NOTE Confidence: 0.9175599 01:10:02.902 --> 01:10:06.141 are these questions and I think. NOTE Confidence: 0.9175599 01:10:06.141 --> 01:10:10.406 And I've told my the rest of the NOTE Confidence: 0.9175599 01:10:10.406 --> 01:10:13.177 board that I'm not happy with the NOTE Confidence: 0.9175599 01:10:13.177 --> 01:10:15.740 way they incorporated obesity. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:18.910 --> 01:10:20.505 You know it's it becomes NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:20.505 --> 01:10:22.100 an easy thing to say. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:22.100 --> 01:10:23.876 Oh it's obesity is the problem. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:23.880 --> 01:10:24.960 It's not obesity. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:24.960 --> 01:10:27.480 I mean there may be an association NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:27.549 --> 01:10:29.279 with it in breast cancer. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:29.280 --> 01:10:33.974 The data are very mixed and alcohol. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:33.974 --> 01:10:39.485 Alcohol in. And as a risk factor in cancer, NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:39.490 --> 01:10:42.050 it's incredibly overrated and NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:42.050 --> 01:10:45.250 overestimated as a risk factor. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:45.250 --> 01:10:49.100 And the data are very much mixed. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:49.100 --> 01:10:52.532 And so I'm just picking on NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:52.532 --> 01:10:54.820 two particular risk factors. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:54.820 --> 01:10:58.036 Age is a clear risk factor. NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:58.040 --> 01:10:59.795 Smoking is a clear risk NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:10:59.795 --> 01:11:01.199 factor in some diseases, NOTE Confidence: 0.922625246 01:11:01.200 --> 01:11:02.548 although not breast cancer. NOTE Confidence: 0.77961707 01:11:04.690 --> 01:11:07.528 And the short answer is yes, NOTE Confidence: 0.77961707 01:11:07.530 --> 01:11:09.462 these can be included, NOTE Confidence: 0.77961707 01:11:09.462 --> 01:11:12.880 but what I'm going on about here NOTE Confidence: 0.77961707 01:11:12.880 --> 01:11:15.792 is the data is really not good NOTE Confidence: 0.77961707 01:11:15.792 --> 01:11:18.849 in many of these risk factors, NOTE Confidence: 0.77961707 01:11:18.850 --> 01:11:20.940 including obesity. NOTE Confidence: 0.593828346666667 01:11:25.320 --> 01:11:27.729 And now others. NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:30.290 --> 01:11:33.404 May I ask you a question about doping it? NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:33.410 --> 01:11:36.510 It's quite interesting so. NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:36.510 --> 01:11:38.628 How to find the shred hold? NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:38.630 --> 01:11:42.300 So how big their database? NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:42.300 --> 01:11:45.260 Maybe for those athletes so NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:45.260 --> 01:11:48.220 that people can reliably using NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:48.328 --> 01:11:50.404 both longitudinal individual NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:50.404 --> 01:11:54.556 level data and put together too? NOTE Confidence: 0.892192977777778 01:11:54.560 --> 01:11:58.890 Keep reliable yeah cut point. So. NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:01.990 --> 01:12:07.870 This is, it's a great question the databases. NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:07.870 --> 01:12:11.970 Are whatever is the collection NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:11.970 --> 01:12:14.861 that the water has in in their NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:14.861 --> 01:12:17.849 banks and they sometimes go back. NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:17.850 --> 01:12:18.910 And and by the way, NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:18.910 --> 01:12:22.726 go back and you know like 10 years NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:22.726 --> 01:12:25.834 or 6 to 10 years and look at things NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:25.834 --> 01:12:28.694 with new tests that they have and NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:28.694 --> 01:12:31.619 find things they didn't know about or. NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:31.620 --> 01:12:34.188 It really raises this question about NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:34.188 --> 01:12:36.185 multiplicity, but what they try to NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:36.185 --> 01:12:38.770 do they try to look at matching. NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:38.770 --> 01:12:40.555 You know what we do with propensity NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:40.555 --> 01:12:41.320 scores or whatever. NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:41.320 --> 01:12:43.456 They don't do anything as formal as that, NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:43.460 --> 01:12:48.940 but they try to look for example at. NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:48.940 --> 01:12:51.910 African Americans in the database? NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:51.910 --> 01:12:55.198 If it's in an African American who is NOTE Confidence: 0.82522717875 01:12:55.198 --> 01:12:57.718 being charged or this thing about? NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:00.070 --> 01:13:02.506 Mary Decker Slaney, who's 38 years old NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:02.506 --> 01:13:05.197 and almost all the data that were used, NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:05.200 --> 01:13:07.872 were for younger women. NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:07.872 --> 01:13:10.544 So does that matter? NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:10.550 --> 01:13:15.205 The databases are actually not very big, NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:15.210 --> 01:13:17.820 so one of my if you look at the slides, NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:17.820 --> 01:13:21.084 one of my calculations I said you need NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:21.084 --> 01:13:23.782 over 20,000 persons in the database NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:23.782 --> 01:13:30.300 in order to conclude a modest false. NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:30.300 --> 01:13:32.348 False positive error rate. NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:32.348 --> 01:13:35.900 They don't anything remotely close to that. NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:35.900 --> 01:13:40.238 They have typically 1000 or less, NOTE Confidence: 0.826402598 01:13:40.240 --> 01:13:42.388 but when you start looking at. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:13:44.760 --> 01:13:47.600 Uh, different racial makeups, NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:13:47.600 --> 01:13:50.412 different age, sometimes different sports. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:13:50.412 --> 01:13:56.200 You know, Alpine sports as opposed to. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:13:56.200 --> 01:14:00.070 Summer Games. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:00.070 --> 01:14:02.350 It's a it's a these. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:02.350 --> 01:14:04.186 These are different kinds of things. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:04.190 --> 01:14:05.890 Different kinds of training. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:05.890 --> 01:14:07.590 Different things can happen, NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:07.590 --> 01:14:09.746 so they try to look at that. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:09.750 --> 01:14:15.140 Inevitably it gets small, and when they. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:15.140 --> 01:14:18.157 You heard me saying the verbal verbal NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:18.157 --> 01:14:22.164 thing that they had like 100 or so. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:22.164 --> 01:14:23.356 For comparison. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:23.360 --> 01:14:27.950 They looked at men 'cause he was a man. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:27.950 --> 01:14:31.496 Yeah, I I don't know if they tried to NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:31.496 --> 01:14:34.560 separate out into Alpine versus others. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:34.560 --> 01:14:36.630 It's a it's a big. NOTE Confidence: 0.704413885 01:14:36.630 --> 01:14:37.360 Issue. NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:14:40.020 --> 01:14:42.610 But inevitably gets stuck with NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:14:42.610 --> 01:14:45.690 this thing of if you're big. NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:14:45.690 --> 01:14:49.384 Your your your doper if you get NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:14:49.384 --> 01:14:51.401 a big value, you're a doper. NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:14:51.401 --> 01:14:52.749 That's sort of Trump's NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:14:52.749 --> 01:14:55.040 everything else, right? NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:14:55.040 --> 01:14:59.030 I mean you can work hard to get a a A. NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:14:59.030 --> 01:15:02.510 Particular population to compare with, NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:15:02.510 --> 01:15:06.446 but if you then rule out the outliers, NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:15:06.450 --> 01:15:11.790 that's. Dominate everything. NOTE Confidence: 0.932776707272727 01:15:11.790 --> 01:15:12.838 Whatever else you did. NOTE Confidence: 0.787085296 01:15:15.050 --> 01:15:16.910 That's right, any other questions? NOTE Confidence: 0.721900526666667 01:15:20.900 --> 01:15:23.480 Well, why you are thinking Chris? NOTE Confidence: 0.721900526666667 01:15:23.480 --> 01:15:27.057 OK? Maybe let me just share one NOTE Confidence: 0.721900526666667 01:15:27.057 --> 01:15:29.970 thing before go to John again so. NOTE Confidence: 0.613809458 01:15:32.210 --> 01:15:33.900 Don't talk about the, uh, NOTE Confidence: 0.613809458 01:15:33.900 --> 01:15:37.650 diagnostic testing and I just want NOTE Confidence: 0.613809458 01:15:37.650 --> 01:15:41.446 to show that the you know Indian and NOTE Confidence: 0.613809458 01:15:41.446 --> 01:15:44.187 I and you know and others that that NOTE Confidence: 0.613809458 01:15:44.187 --> 01:15:46.053 we create this trial design.org. NOTE Confidence: 0.613809458 01:15:46.053 --> 01:15:49.014 As you can see here the the. NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:15:52.390 --> 01:15:55.010 The web the addresses try NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:15:55.010 --> 01:15:57.461 designed now or very simple, NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:15:57.461 --> 01:16:00.730 easy to remember and we have many NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:00.730 --> 01:16:03.500 facing adaptive design available and NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:03.500 --> 01:16:06.882 including the education tab here and NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:06.882 --> 01:16:10.050 underneath here there's a diagnostic test. NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:10.050 --> 01:16:13.461 OK so let me just show you quickly that NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:13.461 --> 01:16:17.276 you can actually go there and learn about. NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:17.280 --> 01:16:19.560 And how to apply Bayes theorem NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:19.560 --> 01:16:20.700 in diagnostic right? NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:20.700 --> 01:16:24.102 So for example, in Dan's example NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:24.102 --> 01:16:27.540 that you have a sensitivity of .95. NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:27.540 --> 01:16:32.084 And then let's see .95. NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:32.084 --> 01:16:36.472 And then specificity of .95 right NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:36.472 --> 01:16:38.336 and then the prevalence. NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:38.340 --> 01:16:41.210 I think in your example is only. NOTE Confidence: 0.7104777 01:16:41.210 --> 01:16:42.160 Zero point. NOTE Confidence: 0.841522908 01:16:44.780 --> 01:16:46.160 .001 right is that 1%? NOTE Confidence: 0.841522908 01:16:46.160 --> 01:16:49.420 Yes no it it. Yes, NOTE Confidence: 0.841522908 01:16:49.420 --> 01:16:51.480 what you said here 1000. NOTE Confidence: 0.841522908 01:16:51.480 --> 01:16:53.320 Yeah one in 1000, NOTE Confidence: 0.841522908 01:16:53.320 --> 01:16:57.270 so actually this will tell you that. NOTE Confidence: 0.841522908 01:16:57.270 --> 01:17:00.130 The positive predictive NOTE Confidence: 0.841522908 01:17:00.130 --> 01:17:02.955 value here here is is. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:05.060 --> 01:17:09.400 2% right I said 1.9%. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:09.400 --> 01:17:12.360 Yeah yeah it's 1.9% OK. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:12.360 --> 01:17:14.256 And one nice thing is this. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:14.260 --> 01:17:19.057 You can see this 100 by 100 cell grid NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:19.060 --> 01:17:24.140 and it shows you OK that the only NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:24.140 --> 01:17:28.300 OK the the the light blue area is NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:28.300 --> 01:17:31.670 actually the no disease and then the NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:31.670 --> 01:17:35.700 dark blue area is the disease and the NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:35.700 --> 01:17:39.210 the red dots are test positive OK? NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:39.210 --> 01:17:41.520 So you can actually see the disease NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:41.520 --> 01:17:43.568 proportion is very, very small. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:43.568 --> 01:17:46.502 It's only one in 1000. OK, NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:46.502 --> 01:17:50.766 so the only 10 cell here and then you know. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:50.770 --> 01:17:54.830 But the huge number of. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:54.830 --> 01:17:57.308 No disease group had test positive, NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:57.310 --> 01:17:59.557 so among the test positive how many NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:17:59.557 --> 01:18:01.868 of them have disease is only 2%, NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:01.870 --> 01:18:04.345 so this is a little bit harder to see. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:04.350 --> 01:18:07.094 But if you can change this to, NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:07.100 --> 01:18:10.601 for example, if the prevalence is 10%. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:10.601 --> 01:18:14.387 OK, and then we calculate it. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:14.390 --> 01:18:16.308 Now we can see these are the NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:16.308 --> 01:18:17.530 the dark blue area. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:17.530 --> 01:18:19.906 These are the disease and light blue areas, NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:19.910 --> 01:18:23.284 no disease and then also you can NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:23.284 --> 01:18:26.065 see the how many of their test NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:26.065 --> 01:18:28.471 positive in this case the positive NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:28.471 --> 01:18:32.070 predictive value is about 67.9%. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:32.070 --> 01:18:34.080 OK, so this is the education NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:34.080 --> 01:18:35.840 tool that people you know. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:35.840 --> 01:18:38.001 If you want to learn and NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:38.001 --> 01:18:39.606 following what Dan said today, NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:39.610 --> 01:18:41.330 you can actually go to NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:41.330 --> 01:18:44.040 trialdesign.org and learn about it. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:44.040 --> 01:18:45.435 That's nice, Jack. NOTE Confidence: 0.86983381 01:18:45.435 --> 01:18:46.830 So can this. NOTE Confidence: 0.75656174 01:18:49.050 --> 01:18:52.250 Software be used to design. NOTE Confidence: 0.75656174 01:18:52.250 --> 01:18:54.518 Those diagnostic test trial. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:18:57.470 --> 01:19:00.646 Not not this one, but it kind of NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:00.646 --> 01:19:03.568 help you to understand the how. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:03.568 --> 01:19:06.330 How does not not stick test works. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:06.330 --> 01:19:08.780 It calculates the false positive NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:08.780 --> 01:19:11.398 false negative way and then NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:11.398 --> 01:19:13.117 also actually calculate. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:13.120 --> 01:19:16.018 You know it has a curve of the false NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:16.018 --> 01:19:18.567 positive versus negative by prevalence. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:18.570 --> 01:19:21.018 So the blue one is the NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:21.018 --> 01:19:22.242 negative predictive value. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:22.250 --> 01:19:25.226 The red One is the positive predictive value. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:25.230 --> 01:19:26.134 The preference. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:26.134 --> 01:19:29.334 Not at this green lights at 110%. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:29.334 --> 01:19:31.754 Yeah, and also just quickly NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:31.754 --> 01:19:33.690 that that you can. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:33.690 --> 01:19:37.986 Actually you know this is for the the. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:37.990 --> 01:19:38.710 You know, NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:38.710 --> 01:19:40.870 test positive or negative dichotomous right? NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:40.870 --> 01:19:43.114 But then you can actually have NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:43.114 --> 01:19:46.136 a kind of a continuous test and NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:46.136 --> 01:19:48.280 then you have a cut off and then NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:48.347 --> 01:19:50.307 it again you have our C curve. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:50.310 --> 01:19:51.327 Things like that. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:51.327 --> 01:19:51.666 Yeah, NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:51.666 --> 01:19:54.622 but but here we didn't do the sample NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:54.622 --> 01:19:56.747 size calculation for our seeker. NOTE Confidence: 0.858152183076923 01:19:56.750 --> 01:19:58.894 Maybe we can edit late later next one. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:02.280 --> 01:20:04.680 Yang Zhang says please NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:04.680 --> 01:20:07.680 send the link to everyone. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:07.680 --> 01:20:10.547 Sure, I would do that, by the way. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:10.547 --> 01:20:14.250 Just as a promotion since I'm already here. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:14.250 --> 01:20:17.022 So we have a lot of phase one trial NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:17.022 --> 01:20:20.038 like Boeing design suite, OK, CRM. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:20.038 --> 01:20:24.390 Now people 3 point and phase two design NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:24.390 --> 01:20:27.198 and then also basket and platform NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:27.198 --> 01:20:29.602 design and sample size calculation NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:29.602 --> 01:20:32.968 you know and the some education to NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:32.968 --> 01:20:35.656 learn how to learn the Bayesian update NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:35.656 --> 01:20:38.890 for a binomial and the normal cases NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:38.890 --> 01:20:40.948 and then they are also useful tool. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:40.950 --> 01:20:44.196 For example calculate effective sample size. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:44.200 --> 01:20:46.936 For the the basin and also. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:46.940 --> 01:20:50.436 Another thing is that if you have a NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:50.436 --> 01:20:53.940 captain marker and then how do you actually? NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:53.940 --> 01:20:56.607 You know, get the individual patient data NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:56.607 --> 01:20:59.570 from the captain marker, so there are. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:20:59.570 --> 01:21:01.850 There are many interesting things here. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:21:01.850 --> 01:21:03.500 OK, so I I would. NOTE Confidence: 0.771262629333333 01:21:03.500 --> 01:21:04.388 I would type the. NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:08.440 --> 01:21:12.680 The URL or so it's very easy. NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:12.680 --> 01:21:14.612 It's just trial design.org. NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:14.612 --> 01:21:19.479 Yeah so that that and all free. NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:19.480 --> 01:21:21.880 Thanks to Anderson MD Anderson, NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:21.880 --> 01:21:23.856 the actually really announced, NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:23.856 --> 01:21:26.360 starting from down by the way down NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:26.360 --> 01:21:27.890 is a founding chairman of Department NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:27.948 --> 01:21:29.718 of Biostatistics at the MD Anderson. NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:29.720 --> 01:21:32.636 So you know, we continue the NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:32.636 --> 01:21:34.580 passion of developed statistical NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:34.660 --> 01:21:37.130 methods and the software tools. NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:37.130 --> 01:21:38.471 OK John, sorry. NOTE Confidence: 0.786941066666667 01:21:38.471 --> 01:21:40.259 That give a waiting. NOTE Confidence: 0.521511629 01:21:43.880 --> 01:21:44.570 John, you have. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:21:46.620 --> 01:21:48.292 You raise your hand. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:21:48.292 --> 01:21:51.206 Yeah yeah, sorry I was muted in only NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:21:51.206 --> 01:21:53.700 two years to learn slow learner. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:21:53.700 --> 01:21:56.900 You commented, done on age in this Laney NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:21:56.900 --> 01:21:59.787 case that raises the generic point, NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:21:59.790 --> 01:22:03.352 particularly for AI machine learning methods, NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:03.352 --> 01:22:06.462 the pertinence of the available NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:06.462 --> 01:22:08.619 training data Bill Clinton said. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:08.619 --> 01:22:10.026 It's the economy, stupid, NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:10.026 --> 01:22:12.010 and this field seems. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:12.010 --> 01:22:15.148 It's though it's the data stupid. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:15.150 --> 01:22:17.580 Your thoughts on how we. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:17.580 --> 01:22:21.787 Approach the question and how often we're. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:21.790 --> 01:22:23.970 Going to be increasingly misled, NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:23.970 --> 01:22:26.958 particularly with these very NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:26.958 --> 01:22:29.199 complex objective functions. NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:29.200 --> 01:22:31.672 In applying machine learning NOTE Confidence: 0.791547706666667 01:22:31.672 --> 01:22:33.526 artificial intelligence methods. NOTE Confidence: 0.845035727272727 01:22:38.730 --> 01:22:41.691 My bias is lack of pertinence of NOTE Confidence: 0.845035727272727 01:22:41.691 --> 01:22:43.731 the available training data depend NOTE Confidence: 0.845035727272727 01:22:43.731 --> 01:22:45.636 on the quality and performance NOTE Confidence: 0.845035727272727 01:22:45.636 --> 01:22:47.530 of the available training data. NOTE Confidence: 0.845035727272727 01:22:47.530 --> 01:22:51.799 Yeah, surely? Uhm? NOTE Confidence: 0.845035727272727 01:22:51.800 --> 01:22:53.808 Well, you think about. NOTE Confidence: 0.906585483333333 01:22:56.610 --> 01:22:58.020 Computers playing chess. NOTE Confidence: 0.5849295 01:23:00.590 --> 01:23:07.796 And. You know to a simple minded person it's. NOTE Confidence: 0.5849295 01:23:07.800 --> 01:23:10.644 It's all in how far you look forward and. NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:13.030 --> 01:23:15.025 But it it? It started out that NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:15.025 --> 01:23:16.549 it really wasn't very good. NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:16.550 --> 01:23:18.867 I mean I could beat the first NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:18.867 --> 01:23:20.320 computers that played chess. NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:20.320 --> 01:23:23.878 But I can't come close now. NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:23.880 --> 01:23:27.990 And they've they've improved in incredibly, NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:27.990 --> 01:23:30.156 and they even do. You know, NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:30.160 --> 01:23:32.990 with the artificial intelligence thing, NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:32.990 --> 01:23:37.470 they even plug machine learning into this, NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:37.470 --> 01:23:42.196 so I don't know whether you ask this in NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:42.196 --> 01:23:45.970 the context of the Slaney case, I don't. NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:45.970 --> 01:23:47.776 This seems to be a jump there, NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:47.780 --> 01:23:50.705 but I think what I what I was trying NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:50.705 --> 01:23:53.539 to ask about pertinence of data. NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:53.540 --> 01:23:55.759 It sounds as though you were saying NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:55.759 --> 01:23:58.251 that the data that is being relied NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:23:58.251 --> 01:24:00.086 upon was for younger athletes, NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:24:00.090 --> 01:24:02.238 and therefore there might be biases NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:24:02.238 --> 01:24:04.706 involved in trying to use it as the NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:24:04.706 --> 01:24:07.362 basis for a for a decision and just NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:24:07.362 --> 01:24:08.810 constantly confronted with that. NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:24:08.810 --> 01:24:10.870 Obviously in a oh variety NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:24:10.870 --> 01:24:12.106 of statistical approaches, NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:24:12.110 --> 01:24:13.726 but I think it seems to be magnified NOTE Confidence: 0.94023243 01:24:13.726 --> 01:24:15.358 in the case of machine learning. NOTE Confidence: 0.439152542 01:24:17.560 --> 01:24:19.288 Yeah, it's so. NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:23.250 --> 01:24:25.506 The the proof of the pudding is in NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:25.506 --> 01:24:28.255 the is in the eating and in all of NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:28.255 --> 01:24:31.189 these things you want to see how it NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:31.189 --> 01:24:32.749 performs in known circumstances. NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:32.750 --> 01:24:35.245 The question is, how broad NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:35.245 --> 01:24:37.740 are you going to get? NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:37.740 --> 01:24:42.157 Here and in in the case of age, NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:42.160 --> 01:24:44.284 does age really matter? NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:44.284 --> 01:24:46.939 And you obviously need data. NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:46.940 --> 01:24:51.458 In order to address that question. NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:51.460 --> 01:24:52.848 And you might do, NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:52.848 --> 01:24:55.450 you know covariant analysis which is flawed. NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:55.450 --> 01:24:57.640 You might do hierarchical analysis, NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:24:57.640 --> 01:25:02.792 which is flawed as the data improves or NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:25:02.792 --> 01:25:06.400 we improve our methods for looking at NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:25:06.400 --> 01:25:09.636 and handling and including these data, NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:25:09.636 --> 01:25:12.388 things will get better. NOTE Confidence: 0.906443493103448 01:25:12.390 --> 01:25:14.020 But you still want to. NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:16.430 --> 01:25:19.174 You know, do things like simulated annealing NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:19.174 --> 01:25:22.310 where you ask the question you know did NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:22.384 --> 01:25:24.958 I come into a rabbit hole here and I'm NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:24.958 --> 01:25:27.504 just looking at things that I can see. NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:27.510 --> 01:25:29.822 And I've got to get out of the NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:29.822 --> 01:25:31.957 rabbit hole in order to see how NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:31.957 --> 01:25:34.340 well I'm working in the rabbit hole. NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:34.340 --> 01:25:36.740 This is, you know, in terms of the NOTE Confidence: 0.716399528 01:25:36.740 --> 01:25:38.320 questions that you asked John. NOTE Confidence: 0.778129526 01:25:40.650 --> 01:25:47.430 They they address really fundamental. NOTE Confidence: 0.778129526 01:25:47.430 --> 01:25:50.970 Issues in philosophy and in life. NOTE Confidence: 0.778129526 01:25:50.970 --> 01:25:52.998 Things that we could. NOTE Confidence: 0.778129526 01:25:53.000 --> 01:25:54.674 Never hoped that we would answer NOTE Confidence: 0.778129526 01:25:54.674 --> 01:25:56.870 in any kind of satisfactory way. NOTE Confidence: 0.96184033 01:25:59.420 --> 01:25:59.850 Thanks. NOTE Confidence: 0.74332227375 01:26:01.950 --> 01:26:04.179 Instantly the goat, NOTE Confidence: 0.74332227375 01:26:04.179 --> 01:26:07.894 the 1010 year GO champion. NOTE Confidence: 0.74332227375 01:26:07.900 --> 01:26:09.940 Quit last year because he NOTE Confidence: 0.74332227375 01:26:09.940 --> 01:26:12.220 couldn't keep up with the A0 NOTE Confidence: 0.74332227375 01:26:12.220 --> 01:26:18.190 at classes of of programs. NOTE Confidence: 0.74332227375 01:26:18.190 --> 01:26:19.770 So not surprising not to NOTE Confidence: 0.74332227375 01:26:19.770 --> 01:26:21.034 beat the chess programs. NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:25.080 --> 01:26:28.120 OK, great, now he's 5:30 so thank you NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:28.120 --> 01:26:31.160 everyone for attending the seminar series. NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:31.160 --> 01:26:34.080 And of course you know greatest things goes NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:34.080 --> 01:26:38.080 to Don for providing all these interesting, NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:38.080 --> 01:26:41.559 inspiring talks and we will have the NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:41.559 --> 01:26:43.900 recording available and slides available NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:43.900 --> 01:26:48.270 in a few days in the Open Works website. NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:48.270 --> 01:26:53.100 Also next month is just been announced. NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:53.100 --> 01:26:58.064 We will. Change our lecture date to NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:26:58.064 --> 01:27:01.292 March 22nd exactly one month from NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:27:01.292 --> 01:27:04.238 now to avoid a conflict within a OK, NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:27:04.240 --> 01:27:05.890 so more information will follow. NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:27:05.890 --> 01:27:08.410 Thank thank you very much again NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:27:08.410 --> 01:27:10.486 Don and everyone see you later. NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:27:10.486 --> 01:27:11.030 Thank you. NOTE Confidence: 0.883646462142857 01:27:11.030 --> 01:27:14.333 Thank you Shark and thank you bye bye bye.